After taking the first of four against the Padres on Thursday night, it seems safe to anoint the New York Mets as "back" after a tough stretch earlier in the month.
New York will aim for its sixth win in eight games, and the sanctity of a split at worst, when it throws deadline-acquisition Paul Blackburn against the struggling Joe Musgrove, who will be making his third start since he was activated off the injured list earlier this month.
With both offenses hitting the ball well now, can we find a discernable edge for either pitcher?
Let's find the best way to bet on Mets vs Padres on Friday night.
Mets vs. Padres Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+125 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -160 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-150 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +135 |
Mets vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| Paul Blackburn | Stat | Joe Musgrove |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | W-L | 3-4 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 4.19/4.36 | ERA /xERA | 4.97/5.69 |
| 4.34/4.12 | FIP / xFIP | 5.04/4.34 |
| 1.19 | WHIP | 1.40 |
| 12.3% | K-BB% | 13.3% |
| 45.9% | GB% | 42.4% |
| 91 | Stuff+ | 118 |
| 105 | Location+ | 100 |
Kenny Ducey’s Mets vs Padres Preview
New York Mets Betting Preview: White-Hot Bats
Well, normal service on the 7 line has resumed. The Mets now grade out as the sixth-best offense in baseball over the last two weeks after coming out of a slump, sporting a solid .178 Isolated Power. If you condense things down to the past seven days, things look even brighter with a .216 ISO and .267 average — and while this team is suddenly striking out in over a quarter of its plate appearances, the Mets have made some improvements in the walk column.
Speaking of improvements, Blackburn has stabilized after taking a beating against his former team a couple of weeks ago when he surrendered six earned runs to the A's over just four frames. He stepped to the Marlins last go around at Citi Field, allowing one earned over six frames for the third time in four starts with his new club.
The veteran righty has had some issues with free passes in New York, walking seven in his four starts, which have taken him across 22 innings. This is a bit curious, considering he's generally been stingy in that area throughout his career and had been working on a career-best walk rate up until his trade to the Mets.
However, Blackburn's Expected Batting Average continues to improve, dipping under .240 this month after setting a season-best with a .248 xBA in July. These aren't stellar numbers by any means, but the big thing for Blackburn has been a huge dive in Expected Slugging down a season-low .362 this month after the contact-oriented arm had been well worse than the league average all season long. For context, that league average is .406, and Blackburn was up over .450 for the first two months and jumped to .539 in the one start he made last month.
He'll continue to induce ground balls around middling strikeout numbers, but we should also point out that with a 21.7% strikeout rate this month that grades out as average, he may be somewhat of a threat in that category.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Slumping Pads?
The Padres have fallen a bit over the last two weeks, ranking 10th in wRC+ despite maintaining solid strikeout and walk rates and hitting .264 to match their .265 average for the season. It has more to do with some unseasonably hot teams ahead of them, considering they've hit for more power and have maintained an excellent 16.8% strikeout rate. There's still a lot of room for improvement regarding walks, but this team has been geared toward swinging early in counts and getting runners on base via hits all season long, so it's hard to throw a fit over that.
As for their starter here, Musgrove has left a lot to be desired through his first 12 starts of the season. What began as a cold start has turned into a depressing season for the 31-year-old, who's owned a bloated 5.69 ERA thanks to a ton of issues on contact and a worsening strikeout rate, which has fallen from a middling 24.3% a year ago to 20.6% in 2024 with an uptick in walks to boot.
Musgrove has settled down lately, allowing fewer than two earned runs in each of his last four outings, but he's given this team no length to speak of, with just one of those outings lasting into the sixth inning. He's persisted in allowing walks and failing to strike guys out, and it's also worth noting that he was fairly fortunate to make it out of his start against the Yankees unscathed after allowing six hits — and drew the Rockies, Pirates and Reds in the others.
Mets vs Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Mets will present Musgrove with his toughest test since coming off the injured list this month, and I'm not seeing much that gets me excited for him here. He's still pitching to contact, and that's not a great strategy against the Mets, considering they've out-slugged almost every team over the last two weeks and have only been held down by strikeouts.
We won't see Musgrove rack up many third strikes here, so I think New York will keep on hitting.
On the flip side, Blackburn's outing against the A's seemed to be an outlier and perhaps an excusable one, with his home debut with the Mets and his former team on the other side of the field. He's displayed a great ability to pitch to ground balls, and the Padres sit seven spots lower in OPS against ground-ball arms than they do against fly-ballers, where they rank third in the game.
This stylistic matchup should favor the slightly better offense now, although both teams have hit the ball well. I'll bet on New York to get to Musgrove and avoid the bullpens here, considering San Diego's has been considerably stronger.
Pick: Mets F5 ML (+120)
Moneyline
The Padres opened up here just shy of -120 on the moneyline and have since been bet down to -140, a number we've seen remain steady throughout most of the betting window. We've tracked 73% of the bets and 77% of the cash on the Padres to win this one.
Run Line (Spread)
The Mets have covered the run line in 56.3% of their games as the road underdogs by an average margin of 1.2 runs, but that rate ranks in the league's bottom half. They're just 1-4 in their last five games against the spread.
San Diego has gone just 18-31 against the spread as home favorites this season, which ranks ninth-worst in baseball.
Over/Under
We've seen this line jump up from the opening of 7.5 to eight runs with some slight action toward the Over, but the sharp action we've tracked is hitting the Under.
The Over did cash in the first game of this series, but that marked just the second time it's hit in the Mets' last six games. The Padres have hit the Over in four straight, and at home this year, have played to the Over in a handsome 62.5% of games.
