The New YorkMets conclude their 10-game, 8,000-mile road trip with a three game series against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park. The Mets have remained in strong form post-All-Star break with a record of 12-8, and have surpassed the Atlanta Braves in the race for the final NL wild-card spot.
While the Mets offense has been the far more productive of these two sides, New York is a slight betting underdog in Friday's matchup based upon the starting pitching edge Bryce Miller is considered to provide over Jose Quintana.
I'll outline the relevant game notes for this interleague opener, as well as hand out my best Mets vs Mariners prediction — a Randy Arozarena prop pick — for this exciting Friday night matchup below.
Mets vs Mariners Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+114 | 8.5 -102o / -118u | +1.5 -198 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-135 | 8.5 -102o / -118u | -1.5 +164 |
Mets at Mariners Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Jose Quintana (NYM) | Stat | RHP Bryce Miller (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-7 | W-L | 8-7 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.8 |
| 3.95/5.03 | ERA /xERA | 3.62/4.20 |
| 4.90/4.52 | FIP / xFIP | 3.79/3.99 |
| 1.27 | WHIP | 1.05 |
| 9.9% | K-BB% | 16.5% |
| 45.0% | GB% | 37.9% |
| 83 | Stuff+ | 111 |
| 98 | Location+ | 102 |
Nick Martin’s Mets vs Mariners Preview
New York Mets Betting Preview: Quintana the Overachiever
In each of his last three seasons, Quintana has overachieved his underlying results by a significant margin — he is on track to overachieve his xERA by roughly a full run once again in 2024. At this point, he probably has to be credited as a slightly more effective starter than his advanced metrics suggest, but he has been outperforming his underlying results even more than usual of late.
Over his last six starts, Quintana has pitched to a stellar 2.52 ERA across 35 2/3 innings. He holds an xFIP of 4.50 in those outings, but has seen batters hit just .183 on balls in-play and stranded 90.9% of baserunners.
Batters hold a 50% hard-hit rate on Quintana's pitches inside the strike zone, which is the seventh-highest mark of any starter in MLB this season.
Against right-handed batters, Quintana has pitched to an xFIP of 4.69 with a K-BB% of 9.2. In those 393 PAs, righties hold a WHIP of 1.30 versus Quintana.
The Mets bullpen has lived up to its potential of late after a horrific start to the season. Over the last month, Mets relievers hold an ERA of 2.87 and an xFIP of 3.25.
The Mets have been much tougher on left-handed pitching than righties this season, though their recent splits versus righties are still quite solid. Since July 1, New York has hit to a 10th-ranked wRC+ of 112 versus RHP. It holds a 13th ranked BB/K in that span, with the second best hard-hit rate (35.6%).
Starling Marte should remain the only notable bat missing from the lineup in this matchup.
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview: Arozarena Worth the Cost
Despite three new bats in the lineup, it looked like yet another ugly day at the plate for the Mariners last night prior to a ninth inning walk-off. Seattle trailed 3-1 heading into the ninth after managing just four hits off a trio of Tigers long relievers, but were able to avoid being swept after some very shaky fielding from Ryan Vilade.
In a small sample of eight games, the Mariners have hit to a wRC+ of 99 with newcomers Randy Arozarena, Justin Turner and Victor Robles in the lineup.
A bet on Arozarena turning it around was obviously the one the organization was most keen to win, and to this point it is looking like a great acquisition. With a crucial single in the ninth inning last night, Arozarena raised his batting average as a Mariner to .297. He holds a hard-hit rate of 52% since being acquired.
Arozarena holds a hard-hit rate of 54% against lefties this season, and he has slugged .495 with an .856 OPS.
Miller's recent form looks to be consistent with his season-long results. In 62 innings since July 1, he has pitched to an ERA of 3.77 with an xFIP of 4.01. He has struck out 7.40 batters per nine in that span, and been hard-hit 41% of the time.
Mets vs Mariners Prediction: Target Randy Arozarena
There has been fairly significant line movement on both the sides and totals in this game, and it looks like the market has corrected to a point where there is no value. Quintana looks like a pitcher to fade moving forward and is clearly a lesser starter than Miller despite somewhat comparable ERAs, but taking on the Mariners at -130 given their lack of offensive upside is a little scary.
One way that I'm looking to fade Quintana is with a bet on Arozarena to record over 1.5 total bases at +130. The splits suggest this is a great matchup for Arozarena to do some damage, and he has clearly been displaying better process at the plate since being traded.
Outside of the fairly high chance of him walking against Quintana, this matchup sets up as a great spot to back Arozarena while the numbers are still good after an ugly first half. At anything better than +125, there is value backing Arozarena to record two or more bases.
Pick: Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 Total Bases +130 (FanDuel, Play to +125)
Moneyline
| overall | home | away | favorite | underdog | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 60-56 | 34-26 | 26-30 | 41-34 | 19-21 |
 | 61-54 | 30-29 | 31-25 | 39-30 | 22-23 |
The Mariners would be my lean here, but at -130, it's hard to say there is much value.
