Mets vs Cardinals Prediction & Odds | Monday Moneyline Pick
Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images. Pictured: Andre Pallante (Cardinals)
The latest Mets vs Cardinals odds for Monday have the Mets as -112 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 9 (-110o / -110u).
Left-hander Sean Manaea takes the mound for New York, while St. Louis hands the ball to right-hander Andre Pallante in this makeup from a postponed game on May 8.
Find my Monday MLB betting preview and Mets vs Cardinals prediction on the moneyline for this National League clash at Busch Stadium below.
Mets vs Cardinals Odds, Prediction
| New York Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-112 | 9 -110o / -110u | -1.5 +145 |
| St Louis Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-108 | 9 -110o / -110u | +1.5 -175 |
Mets vs Cardinals Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Sean Manaea (NYM) | Stat | RHP Andre Pallante (STL) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-4 | W-L | 4-5 |
| 1.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 3.50 / 4.30 | ERA /xERA | 4.04 / 3.56 |
| 3.95 / 4.30 | FIP / xFIP | 3.84 / 3.89 |
| 1.20 | WHIP | 1.36 |
| 14% | K-BB% | 9.8% |
| 36.6% | GB% | 61.3% |
| 86 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 96 | Location+ | 96 |
Tony Sartori's Mets vs Cardinals Betting Preview & Predictions
Mets Betting Preview: Manaea Due for Regression?
Despite posting a 3.50 ERA through 21 starts, Manaea possesses a 4.30 xERA and ranks in the bottom half of the league in xBA, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
This expected regression is likely to occur against St. Louis, a team he sports a 4.91 ERA against through two career meetings.
Following Manaea is a fade-worthy bullpen that ranks in the bottom half of the league in both ERA and FIP.
Meanwhile, this pitching staff is unlikely to receive much run support. Through 35 combined career plate appearances against Pallante, this current Mets lineup possesses a fade-worthy .212 BA, .242 SLG and .226 wOBA.
Cardinals Betting Preview: Pallante Trending Up?
While Manaea is due for regression, we should expect Pallante to move in the opposite direction. The right-hander boasts a 3.56 xERA compared to his 4.04 ERA and ranks in the 84th percentile in average exit velocity and 93rd percentile in barrel rate.
We've seen this expected positive regression already come to fruition recently. Pallante possesses a 2.73 ERA over his past five starts, so it makes sense that St. Louis is keeping him in the rotation with these recent results.
This success is likely to continue against New York, a team he sports a dominant 0.93 ERA against through 9.2 innings of work.
Following Pallante is one of the best bullpens in baseball. This season, the Cardinals' bullpen ranks in the top 10 of the league in ERA, FIP and xFIP.
Mets vs Cardinals Prediction, Analysis: ML 'Dog
The clear pitching advantage goes to St. Louis. Pallante outranks Manaea in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals' bullpen outranks the Mets' in both ERA and FIP.
Therefore, the play is St. Louis at plus-money.
So, what's the catch? Well, New York's lineup is superior.
With that said, this current Cardinals lineup boasts an absurdly dominant .356 BA, .780 SLG and .485 wOBA through 62 combined career plate appearances against Manaea.
Pick: Cardinals ML (+105 at Caesars | Play to +100)
Moneyline: Plus-Money
Bet the Cardinals on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread): Safer Play Below
St. Louis +1.5 is certainly the safer play, but I don't want to lay -169 on that spread. Plus, if the Cardinals lose, then we only lose whatever your unit is and not the extra juice.
For example, only one of St. Louis' past seven losses have come by exactly a one-run differential.
Over/Under: Pass
I'm going to pass on the over/under.
There are too many contradicting variables to attack this market. Manaea is due for regression, while Pallante is due for positive regression.
At the same time, St. Louis' bullpen is strong while New York's is weak. If I absolutely had to choose, I would lean toward the over.
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