The New York Mets (79-65) and Toronto Blue Jays (68-77) play the second game of their interleague series on Tuesday night at Rogers Centre. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SNY, SportsNet and SportsNet+.
The Mets took the series opener over the Blue Jays and have won 10 of their last 11 games. New York's late-season surge has propelled them to sole possession of the third NL wild-card spot entering Tuesday. The Mets, however, lead by just one game over the Atlanta Braves (78-66).
On Tuesday, the Mets hand the ball to left-hander David Peterson, who has had an extremely good season for New York. The Blue Jays are looking to rain on the Mets' parade and play spoiler down the stretch. They'll send Chris Bassitt to the mound.
Can the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Jays throw some cold water on the red-hot Mets? Find my Mets vs Blue Jays prediction and picks on the first five innings (F5) for Tuesday, September 10, below.
Mets-Blue Jays Prediction
- Mets-Blue Jays picks: Blue Jays F5 ML (+110 | Play to -110)
My Mets vs Blue Jays best bet and prediction is on Toronto F5, where I see value at +110 The best line is available at DraftKings, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-125 | 8 -110o / -110u | -1.5 +130 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+105 | 8 -110o / -110u | +1.5 -155 |
- Mets-Blue Jays Moneyline: Mets -125 | Jays +105
- Mets-Blue Jays Total: Over/Under 8 (-110o / -110u)
- Mets-Blue Jays Run Line: Mets -1.5 (+130) | Jays +1.5 (-155)
Projected Starting Pitchers for Mets at Blue Jays
| LHP David Peterson (NYM) | Stat | RHP Chris Bassitt (TOR) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-1 | W-L | 9-13 |
| 1.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.1 |
| 2.75/4.87 | ERA /xERA | 4.30/4.40 |
| 3.99/4.20 | FIP / xFIP | 4.06/4.14 |
| 1.31 | WHIP | 1.43 |
| 9.9% | K-BB% | 14.1% |
| 52.6% | GB% | 40.6% |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 98 | Location+ | 99 |
Mets-Blue Jays Preview Prediction
New York Mets Betting Preview: How is David Peterson Succeeding?
The Mets are scorching hot and SS Francisco Lindor has put the team on his bat. He and teammate Mark Vientos have carried the Mets as of late, and they need to continue their torrid pace if they want to hold onto a wild card spot.
Peterson is the story of the night as he's continued to frustrate the nerds of the world (myself included). You see Peterson's numbers above, and you all ask the same question: How does this guy keep mowing down opposing hitters?
Peterson walks over three batters per nine and continues to allow hard contact. Yes, the ground-ball rate is spectacular, but he ranks below the 25th percentile in the xBA and hard-hit rate.
Even if Peterson manages to escape yet another start unscathed, the Mets' offense isn't guaranteed to perform tonight. They're a worse offensive team at home and are also not strong against right-handed pitching.
The Mets are red-hot and it's tough to fade a team like them right now, but the poor numbers against Bassitt lead me to think they could struggle in the early portion of the game.
With two uncertainties in the offense and Peterson, I'll take my chances fading the Mets in the early portion of the game.
Blue Jays Betting Preview: Vlad Jr. is Red Hot
The Jays have nothing to play for at this point in the season, but they're a scrappy team that can be a spoiler.
The highlight of their season has been the resurgence of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who's having an MVP-caliber year.
Bassitt gets the ball tonight, and he hasn't had the best season. You can see Bassitt's numbers above, and they're not pretty. His inability to limit hard contact and his lack of control have been the Achilles' heel for most of his starts.
He ranks below the 15th percentile in chase and whiff rate and below the 40th percentile in xBA and xERA. There are few encouraging statistics, except that he's above average in exit velocity.
The excellent news for Bassitt is that he has good numbers against his former team. In 79 at-bats, the Mets are batting a measly .179 against him.
I can't fathom how Peterson continues to mow down opponent hitters, as his metrics suggest he's due for an implosion. It's a tremendous offensive matchup for the Jays as I expect a right-handed-heavy lineup.
Peterson is worse against righties, and the jig has to be up sooner rather than later. His excellent ground-ball rate can't continue to carry his other subpar metrics.
I don't know if the Jays can pull off the victory, but I like them in the early portion of the game as long as Peterson is on the mound.
Mets-Blue Jays Prediction, Betting Analysis: First Five Innings (F5)
I can't trust the Jays for the entire game due to their bullpen uncertainties; plus, the Mets will have a more significant advantage once Peterson exits the game.
However, I think taking the Jays F5 at +110 on the moneyline is a great price.
Everybody has hopped aboard the Mets' bandwagon, and rightfully so. But I'm stunned at the amount of love from the public with Peterson on the mound.
I could look foolish again trying to fade a red-hot team and a pitcher who continues to tear up opposing lineups, but there's no way Peterson can keep this up.
Plus, even the best teams in baseball have to cool off eventually, and I think the Mets could be in for a reality check tonight, at least in the early going.
Pick: Blue Jays F5 +110 ML
Moneyline
Blue Jays ML +120
This would’ve been my best bet for the matchup, but I would rather focus on the early portion of the game. I think the Jays are being overlooked tonight by the public, but the safest route to me is targeting the portion of the game with Peterson on the mound.
Run Line (Spread)
PASS
I don't see any value on the Mets -1.5 here, considering I think they’ll be trailing after five innings. It’s possible that they can pull off a late-inning victory, but I don’t see any value in laying two runs with all of the uncertain variables I spoke about above.
Over/Under
PASS
I would lean towards the over since I think Peterson is going to implode, but I’m not confident enough in both offenses to take a side here.
The Mets are a worse offensive team at home, and against righties. Peterson could make me look like a fool again and hurl seven strong innings as the Ponzi scheme could continue.
I’m not confident in the Blue Jays' offense to contribute to the total, so I’ll happily pass here.
Mets-Blue Jays Betting Trends
- 74% of the bets and 84% of the money are on the Mets moneyline.
- 86% of the bets and 91% of the money are on the over.
- 88% of the bets and 94% of the money are on the Mets to cover the run line.
Mets Betting Trends
- The Mets are 4-1 in their last five games.
- The Mets are 3-2 in their last five games against the spread.
- The Mets are 37-33 in their road games against the spread.
- The total has gone over in two of Mets' last five games.
- The total has gone over in 37 of Mets' 74 last games at home.
Blue Jays Betting Trends
- The Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last five games.
- The Blue Jays are 3-2 in their last five games against the spread.
- The Blue Jays are 45-30 in their road games against the spread.
- The total has gone over in one of Blue Jays' last five games.
- The total has gone over in 40 of Blue Jays' 70 last games at home.
Mets-Blue Jays Key Injuries
Mets Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| 2B/OF Jeff McNeil | Fractured right wrist (10-day IL) |
| RHP Paul Blackburn | Right hand contusion (15-day IL) |
| RHP Dedniel Nunez | Right forearm tightness (15-day IL) |
| RHP Christian Scott | Right UCL sprain (15-day IL) |
Blue Jays Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| SS Bo Bichette | Right calf strain (10-day IL) |
| RHP Jordan Romano | Arthroscopic surgery (15-day IL; out for season) |
| RHP Alek Manoah | Right UCL surgery (60-day IL; out for season) |
