The New York Mets have the best record in baseball since the All-Star break. Two weeks ago, the Mets trailed every National League team except the Marlins and Pirates, but are now 1.5 games behind the Phillies for the second Wild Card spot.
The Amazin' Mets beat the Nationals, 4-3, on Saturday, making New York winners in 15 of its last 16 games. The team is making a surprise playoff push and bettors are jumping on the bandwagon.
At the trade deadline, the Mets were +10000 to win the World Series. A few series wins later and New York is +4000 (FanDuel). The team’s implied probability of winning a championship have improved from 0.99% to 2.44%.
The Mets are hot and oddsmakers have taken notice, but is it too late to buy New York as a World Series contender?
To answer that question, we created a consensus projection using simulations from FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. Then we compared the model results to the betting odds.
New York is overrated. On average, the models give the Mets a 1.45% chance of winning the World Series. Based on those projections, Mickey Callaway’s team should have odds closer to +7000, not +4000.
Why are the simulations down on the Mets? The easiest explanation is that New York hasn’t proven it can beat strong competition.
The Mets have won 18 games since the All-Star break, but only two victories have come against opponents above .500. Eight of the wins are against the Marlins and Pirates, who sport the worst records in the NL.
The schedule is about to get harder. Over the team’s next 27 games, 24 come against the Braves, Phillies, Nationals, Indians and Cubs. Each club has a winning record and is in the playoff hunt.
Against tougher competition, the Mets are likely to cool off. Despite the epic run, New York still has long odds to make the playoffs and win the World Series.
It would be an unwise investment to wager on the Mets' inflated championship odds.
