The Baltimore Orioles host the New York Yankees on April 28, 2025. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MASN.
It's been a weird start to the season for the Orioles. After back-to-back postseason appearances, Baltimore was expected to take a big step forward with the young talent it has in place.
Instead, its pitching rotation has been decimated by injuries, its offense has underperformed and it sits at the bottom of the AL East.
New York has come out of the gates looking like the best team in the AL East and once again has the rest of the teams in the division looking up at it.
Find my MLB betting preview and Yankees vs Orioles prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Yankees vs Orioles Prediction
- Yankees vs Orioles picks: Yankees ML -118 (Play to -125)
My Yankees vs Orioles best bet is on the Yankees moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Orioles Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +128 | 9.5 -122o / -100u | -118 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -154 | 9.5 -122o / -100u | +100 |
Yankees vs Orioles Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Will Warren (NYY) | Stat | RHP Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | W-L | 2-1 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.2 |
| 4.79/4.63 | ERA /xERA | 3.54/6.11 |
| 3.73/3.69 | FIP / xFIP | 5.84/4.79 |
| 1.26 | WHIP | 1.14 |
| 12.6% | K-BB% | 3.5% |
| 46.4% | GB% | 44.9% |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 89 |
| 102 | Location+ | 105 |
Mike Ianniello’s Yankees vs Orioles Preview
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Offense Leads Charge
With preseason injuries to Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil, the Yankees' top pitching prospect, Will Warren made the Opening Day roster as part of the rotation. Warren was a late call-up last August, making his MLB debut at the end of the year, but he's struggled to a 10.32 ERA over six appearances.
Things have gone better for Warren this year. In five starts, the rookie has a 4.79 ERA, and his xERA is a tick lower. Warren throws a fastball that can reach 98 miles per hour, and the Yankees helped him add a sinker and work on his slider.
He improved his K/9 rate each year as he rose through the minor leagues.
Despite losing superstar Juan Soto this offseason, the Yankees' offense hasn't missed a beat. New York has slugged 45 home runs and leads the league in OPS and wRC+ while getting contributions throughout its lineup.
The Yanks still have the power but are getting on base more and using more speed on the base paths.
Obviously, everything starts with Aaron Judge. The two-time MVP is somehow on pace for the best season of his career. He's hitting .406 with a 1.217 OPS through the first month of the season.
In addition to Judge, Paul Goldschmidt has turned back the clock and looks like a seven-time All-Star again, and young guns Ben Rice and Anthony Volpe have taken a step forward.
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: An Injury-Riddled Roster
Tomoyuki Sugano didn't receive the same headlines and expectations as some of the other Japanese pitchers who have come to the MLB, but he's a former league MVP and is off to a promising start in Baltimore.
Sugano has a 3.54 ERA across five starts and is coming off two straight seven-inning outings.
Pitching deep into games is Sugano’s mentality and something the Orioles desperately need right now. He's never going to overpower anybody and has just nine strikeouts in five starts. But he pitches smart, and he throws a bunch of strikes.
He's the only Orioles starter to go deeper than six innings this season.
For a team full of young talent, Baltimore’s offense has underperformed this year. It ranks just 19th in scoring and has been super inconsistent.
The Orioles do a decent job hitting for power, sitting in the top 10 in home runs. However, they haven't done the little things well. The Orioles sit bottom five at generating walks, they don’t hit for average and they don’t run the bases well. It's been home run or bust.
Injuries have also been a big issue. Gunnar Henderson started the year on the injured list and hasn't been able to return to form. Tyler O’Neill and Colton Cowser are currently on the IL, and Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg and Cedric Mullins all missed Sunday’s game with various ailments.
Yankees vs Orioles Prediction, Betting Analysis
Sugano is exactly what the Orioles need right now. Their starting rotation has been a disaster this season, but he provides them with consistency and stability. He's not a guy who is going to dominate a lineup, but he's not going to have blow-up outings, either.
Baltimore knows he's going to throw a ton of strikes, pitch deep into the game and allow a handful of runs while limiting the damage.
Sugano has just a 4.4% walk rate, which ranks near the top of the league, but he has an 8.0% strikeout rate, which sits at the bottom. That consistency is great against most teams, but against the Yankees, if you're unable to miss bats, you're going to run into trouble eventually.
New York has five players with at least five home runs. Judge is playing at a historic pace right now, but this lineup has proven it can get it done in a multitude of ways and has learned to take what its opponents are giving.
Warren is a very interesting prospect who's off to a decent start this season, but I think he has room to be even better. Warren was able to improve his strikeout rate each year, reaching a 11.16 K/9 rate in Triple-A last season and posting a 11.51 K/9 rate in his six MLB games to finish the year.
He struck out at least five batters in four of his five starts.
So far this season, his K/9 rate sits at just 9.15, but I expect that to increase shortly. Despite a lower strikeout rate, Warren has actually increased his whiff rate from 25.8% to 28.7%. So, he's missing more bats this season; it just hasn't been for strike three.
He's utilizing his fastball and slider more, and they've both been terrific.
Sugano is a fine starting pitcher and projects slightly above average, but that's not good enough against this Yankees offense.
I'm bullish on Warren and expect him to continue improving throughout the season.
Pick: Yankees ML -118 (Play to -125)
Moneyline
Play the Yankees on the moneyline at -125 or better.
Run Line (Spread)
I'll pass on this one for today's game.
Over/Under
I have no interest in the total this time.
Yankees vs Orioles Parlay
- Yankees ML
- Will Warren Over 4.5 Strikeouts
- Aaron Judge Hit
Parlay odds: +275 (Fanatics)
