Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds
| Yankees Odds | -165 |
| Red Sox Odds | +140 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Time | Sunday, 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
| Odds as of Saturday and via PointsBet. | |
Gerrit Cole takes the mound, looking to shut down the Yankees' bitter rivals in the series finale against the Red Sox on Sunday.
The Yankees have been resurgent over the past few weeks and finally have a full-strength lineup for the first time this season. However, New York is still trailing the Red Sox and Rays by a significant amount of games in the AL East, so Sunday's game is vital for them to get back into the playoff picture.
The Red Sox have relinquished their division lead in the AL East to the Rays, but Boston has been on a tear this season. Its offense has been one of the best in baseball, ranking in the top 10 of just about every metric. It'll send Eduardo Rodriguez to the mound in hopes he can turn around the misfortune he has suffered through so far this season.
Offensive Matchup
New York Yankees
After a slow start to the season, the Yankees offense has come alive over the past month, putting up a .323 wOBA and 106 wRC+. What has helped the most is they are finally healthy, Luke Voit is off the IL, Stanton is consistently back in the lineup, which now makes the Bronx Bombers very lethal at the plate.
However, this won't be the best of matchups for them because the Yankees haven't been hitting left-handers that well this season, ranking 15th in terms of wOBA. They also rank in the bottom half of baseball against fastballs, changeups, and cutters, which happen to be Eduardo Rodriguez's three main pitches.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox offense has been one of the best in baseball this season, as they rank inside the top 10 in both wOBA and wRC+. They've been especially good against right-handed pitching, putting up a .324 wOBA and 102 wRC+. The Red Sox's three through five spots in their order are about as scary as it gets for an opposing pitcher. Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez and Rafael Devers have combined for 45 HRs, 144 RBIs, and all have a wOBA over .380 against right-handed pitching.
The Red Sox lineup also has positive run values against every pitch in Gerrit Cole's arsenal, so they'll be a tough matchup for him on Sunday afternoon.
Starting Pitching Matchup
Gerrit Cole vs. Eduardo Rodriguez
2021 Stats(via FanGraphs)
Yankees Starting Pitcher
Gerrit Cole, RHP
2021 Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)
Gerrit Cole has been the best pitcher in the American League this season, posting a 2.56 xERA and 2.70 xFIP. He's been unbelievable with his control, putting up a 11.45 K/9 rate and a 1.40 BB/9, which are two of the best marks in baseball.
Cole has made a slight change from last season, as he's going to his fastball less often than he did last season, which has really paid off, as the wOBA against his heater and slider is down from last season.
The biggest issue for Cole last season was his inability to keep the ball in the yard. He surrendered a career-worst 1.73 home runs per 9 innings (HR/9) in 2020. This season, he's lowered that rate 1.02, but keeping the ball inside the yard is still an issue for Cole.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher
Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP
2021 Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)
If you look at Eduardo Rodriguez on paper, you'd think he's having a horrible season. He has a 6.06 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, and opponents are hitting .294 against him. However, Rodriguez is due for some major positive regression, because his xERA and xFIP are below 3.50.
Rodriguez's three main pitches of fastball, curveball, and cutter have been really effective despite maybe not getting the result they should, as they are all allowing an xwOBA under .300. Also, like I mentioned above, the Yankees are average against left-handed pitching and are in the bottom half of Major League Baseball against Rodriguez's three main pitches.
Bullpen/Defensive Matchup
The later innings will be a matchup between two of the best bullpens in baseball. The Yankees pen has been rock solid all season long, putting up a 3.18 ERA and 3.86 xFIP and are top 10 in BB/9, HR/9, and LOB%.
The Red Sox bullpen has drastically improved from last season, and the emergence of Matt Barnes as a lock-down closer has helped drastically. Barnes this season has posted a 1.83 xERA, 1.88 xFIP, and a 15.19 K/9 rate, which are all top five in MLB. The Red Sox bullpen itself is also top 10 in both ERA and xFIP, so the bullpen matchup is basically a wash.
Yankees-Red Sox Pick
Even though Gerrit Cole and Eduardo Rodriguez are on the mound, I think the total is a tad low for this game. The Red Sox have a really good matchup against Cole, and the Yankees improved lineup should be able to to get to Rodriguez, even if it is a tough matchup.
Since I have 9.47 runs projected for this game, I think there is some value on Over 8.5 runs at -110 and would play it up to -115.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-110)
