Luis Gil returns from injury and will face the Chicago Cubs on Friday. Gil has been a force in the rotation for the New York Yankees. Despite that, he has grown accustomed to walking a few too many hitters, and the Chicago Cubs have been patient and hammering the ball lately.
The Cubs will send out Jordan Wicks, who dealt with some injury issues, but returned last week and secured a win against the Nationals.
Since the Cubs have trounced right-handed pitching and get to play at home Friday. Look for a rude awakening on the mound for Gil.
Read further for my Yankees vs. Cubs prediction.
Yankees-Cubs Prediction
- Yankees-Cubs picks: Cubs Moneyline (+130 | Play to -110)
My Yankees-Cubs best bet is on the Cubs moneyline, where I see value at +125. The best line is available at ESPNBet, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Cubs Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 7 -115o / -105u | -155 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 7 -115o / -105u | +130 |
Yankees vs Cubs Projected Starting Pitchers
| Luis Gil RHP | Stat | Jordan Wicks RHP |
|---|---|---|
| 12-6 | W-L | 2-2 |
| 2.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 3.39/3.61 | ERA /xERA | 3.82/3.87 |
| 3.89/4.32 | FIP / xFIP | 3.13/4.00 |
| 1.20 | WHIP | 1.36 |
| 14.9% | K-BB% | 15.1% |
| 37.3% | GB% | 41.0% |
| 110 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 94 | Location+ | 103 |
D.J. James' Yankees vs Cubs Preview
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Gil's Return Raises Questions
Gil has a 3.39 ERA and 3.61 xERA on the year, but who knows how he will rebound from his stint on the Injured List. His Average Exit Velocity is about 89 MPH with a Hard-Hit Rate in the 68th percentile. Although he strikes out a large number of batters, his walk rate is over 12%, and his ground-ball rate ranks in the 18th percentile. The Cubs have just been too sharp to not take advantage of Gil’s glaring issues.
The Yanks have not hit lefties well, though batting only .236 against them. They have a 107 wRC+ in the last month with a 10.6% walk rate and 20.3% strikeout rate against them.
In relief, the Yankees have a 3.95 xFIP with a 21.2% strikeout rate and an 8.5% walk rate. Only three bullpen arms are under a 4.00 xFIP, which is encouraging, but Clay Holmes has displayed time and time again that he does not have what is needed as a lockdown closer.
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview: What To Expect from Wicks?
Wicks is the weaker of the two starters, but what we've seen is a small sample size. He looked real solid against the Nationals last week though, allowing four hits and one earned run. Granted, the Nationals aren't very good, but we'll take any win we can get.
You'll see Wicks throwing the fastball a lot, but he gets the most out of his breaking balls, getting exceptional value from his offspeed pitches.
The Cubs have a 130 wRC+, 11.1% walk rate, and 18.4% strikeout rate. What this says is that they will be able to make contact and force Gil into deep counts. Only one Cubs hitter on the active roster is under a .310 xwOBA. This lineup has been on fire and can force Gil out of the game earlier than he expects, especially if the Yankees are being cautious with his return from injury.
In relief, the Cubs have a 3.76 xFIP, 27.7% strikeout rate, and 9.2% walk rate. Like the Yankees, they will walk some hitters, but this relief staff can miss some bats. In addition, Chicago has four active arms under a 4.00 xFIP with Jorge López on the shelf.
Yankees vs Cubs Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Cubs are one of the only teams to match the Yankees’ lineup production within the last month when tasked with a right-hander.
Look for the Cubs to cause issues for Gil in his return from injury. They can work the count and make contact. Despite how potent the Yankees may seem, Chicago should pull this one off. Bet the Cubs from +125 to -110. This line should be much more even than it is.
Pick: Chicago Cubs ML +125 to -110 (ESPN Bet)
Moneyline
+125 (Yes)
Run Line (Spread)
+1.5 (Pass)
Over/Under
7 (Pass)
Yankees vs Cubs Betting Trends
- 87% of the bets and 97% of the money are on the Yankees on the moneyline.
- 89% of the bets and 94% of the money are on the over.
- 86% of the bets and 96% of the money are on the Yankees to cover the run line.
Yankees Betting Trends
- The Yankees are 1-4 in their past five games.
- The Yankees are 1-4 against the spread in the past five games.
- The over has hit in each game for the Yankees' past five games
- The Yankees are 43-29 on the road.
- The Yankees are 38-34 on the road against the spread
Cubs Betting Trends
- The Cubs are 3-2 in their past five games.
- The Cubs are 3-2 against the spread in the past five games.
- The over has hit in three out of the Cubs' past five games.
- The Cubs are 37-31 at home.
- The Cubs are 31-37 at home against the spread.
