The New York Yankees (81-60) and Chicago Cubs (72-69) play the middle game of their three-game series on Saturday afternoon at Wrigley Field. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network for out-of-market viewers, as well as YES and Marquee Sports Network.
It is going to be a much different dynamic at Wrigley Field on Saturday with the wind blowing in and cooler weather along Chicago’s lakefront. Javier Assad, who toes the rubber for the Cubs, has definitely been on the lucky end considering his peripheral metrics, but he has been pretty stable for the last month. His opponent will be Clarke Schmidt, who is similar in that he is outperforming his peripherals at the moment.
The Yankees enter Saturday a half-game back of the Baltimore Orioles (82-62) for first place in the AL East. The Yanks hold possession of the first AL wild-card spot by five games over the Minnesota Twins (76-65) and Kansas City Royals (77-65).
I preview the second game of this MLB interleague clash below and offer my Yankees vs Cubs prediction and moneyline pick — plus the latest MLB odds for Saturday, September 7, and a head-to-head breakdown of Schmidt and Assad.
Yankees-Cubs Predictions
- Yankees-Cubs picks: Cubs Moneyline (+125 | Play to -110)
My Yankees-Cubs best bet and prediction is on Cubs moneyline, where I see value at +125. The best line is available at ESPN Bet — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-142 | 7.5 -118o / -102u | -1.5 +120 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+120 | 7.5 -118o / -102u | +1.5 -142 |
- Yankees-Cubs Moneyline: Yankees -142 | Cubs +120
- Yankees-Cubs Over/Under: 7.5 total runs (-118o / -102u)
- Yankees-Cubs Run Line: Yankees -1.5 (+120) | Cubs +1.5 (+120)
Projected Starting Pitchers for Yankees at Cubs
| Clarke Schmidt RHP | Stat | Javier Assad RHP |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | W-L | 7-4 |
| 1.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.1 |
| 2.52/3.79 | ERA /xERA | 3.21/4.57 |
| 3.55/3.77 | FIP / xFIP | 4.54/4.64 |
| 1.14 | WHIP | 1.36 |
| 19% | K-BB% | 9.8% |
| 39% | GB% | 42.7% |
| 115 | Stuff+ | 86 |
| 99 | Location+ | 100 |
New York Yankees at Chicago Cubs Preview Prediction for Saturday
Yankees Betting Preview: Judge & Soto Lead Yankees
Schmidt has a 2.52 ERA and 3.79 xERA; his Average Exit Velocity is 88.4 mph with a well above average Hard-Hit Rate. His walk rate is a bit suspect from time to time, though, even though he is striking out more than 27% of batters and manufacturing a high whiff rate.
That said, despite the wind blowing in at Wrigley, Schmidt carries a ground-ball rate in the 31st percentile, so the Cubs should be able to elevate the ball against him.
The Yankees have hit righties well, spearheaded by two of the greatest hitters of all time in Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. They have a 127 wRC+ in the last month, with a 10.2% walk rate and 22.2% strikeout rate. They have nine active batters with a .310+ xwOBA, so this lineup can get the job done. However, Assad has been sharp lately and could keep this game tight.
The Yankees bullpen has a 3.95 xFIP, 21.2% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate. They have three arms under a 4.00 xFIP only, but the Cubs are patient. Since both Schmidt and this bullpen have a tendency to issue walks, the Cubs could be patient and work their way to runs that way.
Cubs Betting Preview: Cubs Bats Red Hot
Assad has a 3.21 ERA and 4.57 xERA; his Average Exit Velocity is nearly the same as Schmidt’s at 88.5 mph, with an above-average Hard-Hit Rate. Assad also forces teams to hit the ball on the ground at an above-average clip.
Assad has a tendency to issue walks, like Schmidt and the Yankees’ relief staff. The Cubs right-hander has a below-average strikeout rate, but he was consistent in August with a 3.16 ERA over six starts.
The Cubs have a 130 wRC+ against righties in the last month, a figure somehow better than the Yankees. The Cubs also strike out less and walk more, so this could lead to a slight edge in the batter’s box for the home underdogs.
Every active hitter on the Cubs roster has a .305+ xwOBA off righties in the last month outside of Isaac Paredes. Basically, anyone they put up at the dish will have a solid chance of getting on base.
In relief, the Cubs have a 3.76 xFIP with a 28% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate. Like the Yankees, the Cubs bullpen can issue walks, but they should be able to miss a few Yankees bats in the process. The Cubs have four arms under a 4.00 xFIP, so since Assad has the propensity to pitch deep, Chicago should have the artillery to back him up.
Yankees-Cubs Prediction, Betting Analysis: Chicago Moneyline
Schmidt and Assad are too close in talent to warrant this moneyline discrepancy. Look for the Cubs to pull out a close game here — I'd bet them from +125 to -110 on the moneyline.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline (+125 to -110)
Moneyline
+125 (Yes)
Run Line (Spread)
+1.5 (Pass)
Over/Under
7.5 (Pass)
Yankees-Cubs Betting Trends
- 82% of the bets and 85% of the money are on the Yankees on the moneyline.
- 74% of the bets and 72% of the money are on the over.
- 76% of the bets and 54% of the money are on the Yankees to cover the run line.
Yankees Betting Trends
- Yankees are 2-3 in their last 5 games
- Yankees are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Yankees are 39-34 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Yankees' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 40 of Yankees' 68 last games at home
Cubs Betting Trends
- Cubs are 2-3 in their last 5 games
- Cubs are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Cubs are 39-33 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Cubs' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 31 of Cubs' 69 last games at home
Yankees-Cubs Weather for Saturday
