The New York Yankees look to take a commanding 3-0 lead over the Cleveland Guardians in the American League Championship Series on Thursday night at Progressive Field. First pitch for ALCS Game 3 is scheduled for 5:08 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on TBS, truTV and Max — other viewing/streaming options include MLB.TV, Fubo and Sling TV.
Yankees vs Guardians Game 3 odds have the Yankees as -115 moneyline favorites and the Guardians as -105 underdogs. The over/under is a consensus total of 7 (-115o / -105u). The Yankees are +162 to cover the run line (-155) and the Guardians are -195 (+1.5).
Find my Yankees vs Guardians prediction and picks, plus the latest odds, probable pitchers (Clarke Schmidt and Matthew Boyd), starting lineups, weather forecast and more below.
My Yankees vs Guardians Prediction for Game 3
- Yankees vs Guardians pick: Under 7.5 (-122) | Bet to Under 7
My Yankees vs Guardians best bet is on the under, where I see value at 7.5 (-122). The best line is available at BetRivers, but make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Odds, Predictions, Best Bets
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-115 | 7 -115o / -105u | -1.5 +162 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-105 | 7 -115o / -105u | +1.5 -195 |
- Yankees vs. Guardians Moneyline: Yankees -115, Guardians -105
- Yankees vs. Guardians Total: Over/Under 7 (-115o / -105u)
- Yankees vs. Guardians Run Line: Yankees -1.5 (+162), Guardians +1.5 (-195)
Game 3 Probable Pitchers for Yankees vs Guardians
| RHP Clarke Schmidt (NYY) | Stat | LHP Matthew Boyd (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-5 | W-L | 2-2 |
| 1.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 2.85 / 3.75 | ERA /xERA | 2.72 / 3.10 |
| 3.58 / 3.92 | FIP / xFIP | 3.29 / 3.89 |
| 1.18 | WHIP | 1.13 |
| 17.8% | K-BB% | 19.9% |
| 40.5% | GB% | 31.4% |
| 116 | Stuff+ | 75 |
| 98 | Location+ | 102 |
Yankees vs Guardians Game 3 Previews, Predictions, Lineups
It's been all Yankees through two games of the ALCS. Do the Guardians have any shot, or are the Yankees just the superior overall team?
Yankees Betting Preview
Yankees Game 3 Lineup
- Gleyber Torres (2B)
- Juan Soto (RF)
- Aaron Judge (CF)
- Giancarlo Stanton (DH)
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (3B)
- Jon Berti (1B)
- Anthony Volpe (SS)
- Alex Verdugo (LF)
- Jose Trevino (C)
Clarke Schmidt had a 2.85 ERA and 3.75 xERA in 16 games over the regular season.
He allowed two earned runs over 4 2/3 innings against the Royals in the ALDS — it's possible he puts up a similar performance in Game 3 against the Guardians.
Schmidt's Average Exit Velocity was a touch above 89 mph with a Hard-Hit Rate in the 55th percentile. He limited barrels and held a 26.3% strikeout rate with a walk rate of 8.5%.
The Yankees have a 116 wRC+ in the playoffs entering Thursday. They are only striking out at a 19.1% clip while walking 16.1% of the time.
In the last month, including the regular season, the Yankees have multiple bats eclipsing a .330 xwOBA against left-handed pitchers. That said, the top of the order has done the most damage against lefties with these parameters in place.
If Matthew Boyd can navigate around the big bats who can elevate the ball, he could put up his longest outing of the postseason.
The Yankees have a reliever xFIP of 3.20 xFIP in the playoffs. They have thrown just over 23 innings, while the Guardians have used their bullpen much more frequently.
Guardians Betting Preview
Guardians Game 3 Lineup
- Steven Kwan (LF)
- Kyle Manzardo (DH)
- Jose Ramirez (3B)
- Josh Naylor (1B)
- Lane Thomas (CF)
- Daniel Schneemann (RF)
- Andres Gimenez (SS)
- Austin Hedges (C)
- Brayan Rocchio (SS)
Boyd had a 2.72 ERA and 3.10 xERA in the regular season. His Average Exit Velocity was under 88 mph with a Hard-Hit Rate in the middle of the pack in limited innings. He held a 27.7% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate.
Over 6 2/3 innings against the Tigers in the ALDS, Boyd struck out 10 batters and did not allow an earned run. He should get a longer leash in this start — assuming he's in a groove — considering it's a seven-game series and the Guardians can't push their bullpen nearly as hard.
The Guardians have struggled in the last month against right-handed pitchers. They only have two hitters with a .330+ xwOBA in Steven Kwan and José Ramírez.
In the playoffs, they have a 77 wRC+, 6.3% walk rate and 24.3% strikeout rate against both lefties and righties. Their strikeout rate is up, and they still are not walking much.
Timely hitting has been an issue through two games in the ALCS, and with the way Schmidt and the Yankees bullpen can pitch, this could be a prevailing theme.
In relief, the Guardians have a 4.00 xFIP. They have multiple options who can keep the Yankees lineup in check, but utilizing their best relievers so often could limit their effectiveness as the series goes on as New York's bats get more looks.
Yankees vs Guardians Prediction, Game 3 Over/Under Analysis
The Yankees clearly look like the better, more complete team. When they get runners on base, they can knock them in.
While the Guardians have a strong bullpen, their lineup simply lacks the power the Yankees have, so expect this game to go under the total.
Pick: Under 7.5 to 7
Moneyline
The moneyline is nearly a pick'em at the time of writing (Yankees -115; Guardians -105), but I have no play on either side.
Pick: Pass
Run Line (Spread)
Like the moneyline, I have no play for either side of the run line.
Pick: Pass
Over/Under
Pick: Under 7.5
Yankees Trends
- Clarke Schmidt has allowed a SLG of just .282 on his breaking pitches since last season — ninth best among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP– 93rd Percentile
- Hitters have swung at 45% of Clarke Schmidt's pitches (42/93) with two-strikes in his last three starts — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 59% — first Percentile
- Clarke Schmidt struck out 32% (58/184) of left-handed batters he faced in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile
Guardians Trends
- Lane Thomas is slugging just .338 on breaking pitches from RHP since last season — 15th worst in MLB– 14th Percentile
Yankees vs Guardians Game 3 Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio |
| Date: | Thursday, Oct. 17, 2024 |
| Time: | 5:08 p.m. ET |
| TV Channel/Live Streaming: | TBS, truTV, Max / MLB.TV, Fubo, Sling TV |
