After an epic Game 3 that featured a multitude of clutch home runs from Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, David Fry and Jhonkensy Noel, the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians get back at it for ALCS Game 4 on Friday night at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m ET on TBS.
Yankees vs Guardians Game 4 will feature an intriguing starting pitching matchup between young right-handers Luis Gil and Gavin Williams. Neither has pitched in weeks – Gil’s last start was on Sept. 28 and Williams’ was on Sept. 22.
What can we expect on Friday night? Find my Yankees vs Guardians predictions for Game 4 of the ALCS below.
Yankees vs Guardians Prediction
- Yankees vs Guardians pick: Yankees Moneyline -125 (Bet to -130)
My Yankees vs Guardians best bet for Friday's Game 4 is the Yankees moneyline, where I see value at -125. The best line is available at DraftKings, but make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Guardians Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-118 | 7.5 -112o / -108u | -1.5 +142 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-102 | 7.5 -112o / -108u | +1.5 -170 |
Yankees vs Guardians Game 4 Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Luis Gil (NYY) | Stat | RHP Gavin Williams (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 15-7 | W-L | 3-10 |
| 2.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.3 |
| 3.50 / 3.83 | ERA /xERA | 4.86 / 4.14 |
| 4.14 / 4.36 | FIP / xFIP | 3.67 / 4.12 |
| 1.19 | WHIP | 1.37 |
| 14.8% | K-BB% | 14.2% |
| 35.6% | GB% | 40.6% |
| 110 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 95 | Location+ | 101 |
Justin Perri's Yankees vs Guardians ALCS Game 4 Preview
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Can NY Rebound from Crushing Loss?
One strike. That's all the Yankees needed to effectively end the postseason hopes of their ALCS foes last night, but we wouldn't be here romanticizing about it if it had happened. Instead, New York now faces the massive momentum shift that comes from expending extra-innings resources and energy on a likely win, to a last minute, it-slipped-through-our-fingers loss.
Now, that's not to say it's all doom and gloom for the Yankees. Quite the opposite, in fact.
And I am willing to bet that the vibes in the clubhouse are that of confidence rather than the frustration that a fan might feel. Why? Players know the ups and downs of baseball much more intrinsically than we do, obviously, and from the perspective of how the Yankees played last night — they put themselves in an incredible position to win on the road. If they continue to do that, the series should still be theirs to take.
Last night, you could argue, was one of those "must-win" games for Cleveland, as we all know the numbers behind winning a playoff series, in any sport, when down 3-0 in a best-of-seven format. It just does not happen.
So considering that a series-saving, final-strike home run from the Kris Kringle of Cleveland (Jhonkensy Noel), a literal Big Christmas Miracle, was needed to preserve their lifeline … the Yankees, and their fans should feel pretty good.
Vegas still feels good, the Yankees are priced close to -350 to advance to the World Series. Sure, it was -800 prior to Game 3, but it is quite difficult to string together multiple wins and the Yankees have shown in each of the three games that they are the more likely side to win. It's why they were slightly favored yesterday, and why they are again tonight as well.
New York will send out Luis Gil for Game 4, as it tries to secure an almost-as-effective 3-1 lead. The optics of losing back to back would certainly not feel great, so I expect there to be a bit of short leash on the young righty if he should find his way into trouble.
Gil leans on his fastball, which he throws almost 50% of the time. It's got real heat to it at 96.5 mph and he gets an inch more vertical movement than the MLB average, which has resulted in a .205 BAA this season (83rd percentile) and a 13.2% swinging strike rate (88th percentile).
He mixes in a slider and changeup that are equally nasty, maybe better. So you might be wondering, why isn't he the best pitcher in the gosh darn world?
The answer is his command. It's not too often you see a 95 Location+ (5% worse than the average) because most MLB pitchers are very near to the average ability. Gil is one of those true hurlers, a flamethrower, rather than a pitcher you might label as Rembrandt, painting the corners. So he is his own Achilles' heel — his walk rate is in the 4th percentile at 12.1%.
Will he be able to keep himself out of trouble? Nobody can touch him when he's on and that rightly warranted Rookie of the Year discussion throughout the season.
This is the biggest moment in Gil's young career. Aaron Judge looks like he's shaken the monkey off his back and Giancarlo Stanton is crushing everything in his path. Gil doesn't need to be perfect for the Yankees to win, he just needs to be solid, and I expect him to deliver New York a solid opportunity to win through the first four or five innings.
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview: Spotlight on Gavin Williams
The quiet, building rivalry between Cleveland and New York sports certainly has Guardians fans feeling good. A comeback victory fueled by multiple big-time, clutch home runs compared to the potential fate of a 0-3 series score that was a single pitch from reality has got to be one of the best feelings in sports.
With two swings the Guardians saved their season, but that is not necessarily something to be thrilled about. Optimally, you wouldn't need heroics to win a game at home, where you had the best record of any team at their own park, but that's where the Guardians are.
Everyone believes they are thoroughly outmatched — you do not end up as a +105 dog, +115 fair, when you are evenly stacked up. So how will they respond? Will last night be a blip on the radar? A one-time, lucky instance in which, if it was replayed to a large sample, would have gone the Yankees' way? Or is something truly brewing under the hood for a Cinderella run?
That's a lot of questions. Gavin Williams will be placed upon the mound at the start of the game to answer them.
Williams started 16 games for the Guardians this season, posting a 4.86 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP with a 3-10 record. His expected stats indicate a bit of bad luck and a more likely ERA in the ballpark of 4.20. The culprit is his fastball, which had a BABIP of .339 this season (20th percentile). He has good heat to it, sitting at the same 96.6 mph that you see with the likes of Gerrit Cole.
The auxiliary pitches look solid, though he is liable to hang a curveball or slider. That said, everything points to Williams having a distinct ability to outperform his past results and impress against New York.
Hitting might be a bit tough to come by against Luis Gil, and if you just go by past matchup stats, you might not get that same conclusion. The Guardians have seen Gil this season, but the rookie left the start after three innings and allowed six walks in that span. He would go on the injured list afterwards for a couple weeks.
We haven't seen Gil pitch since the 28th of September, off the back of two starts in which he combined to surrender 10 earned runs to Athletics and Pirates … but the likelihood is that the extended rest should help and there's a good chance, based on the numbers, that we could see another low-scoring affair — at least while the starters are in.
Expect a tight game that may need more heroics from the Guardians to propel themselves to the level of the Yankees. That's not any disrespect, as we're discussing teams with such insanely different bankrolls that you'd think Cleveland was playing by different rules.
It's impressive what the Guardians have done — don't be shocked if they 'steal' another game at home — but it would be a surprise to see a win without more spectacular performances.
Yankees vs Guardians Prediction, Betting Analysis
There's been minimal market sway in most of the ALCS games thus far, and today's contest is no different.
Some five-cent moves here and there, a bit of a chance to get a few points at various shops — but nothing meaningful, nothing to read into and it will likely be that way with most games for the rest of the playoffs unless there's some unknown injury reveal.
My pick for today is to stick with the team that is, on average, better. I played the Yankees yesterday, too, for the record. I would play them again at that price knowing it boiled down to one strike, and thus I will stay with my projections and continue to take the team that is top-to-bottom better.
Let's be clear: the better team can and does lose all the time in sports. However, the reason we take this bet is that the odds of that occurring today are less than the price we pay with enough margin that we beat the price difference the books are charging between what's available and the fair "de-vigged" line.
Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Giancarlo Stanton — those are three names that will be looked back at as one of the greatest slugging trios to ever suit up together. I'll trust my numbers and bet on them to tighten their grip rather than let it slip away, again, tonight.
Pick: Yankees ML -125 (Play to -130 | DraftKings )
Moneyline
This is a clash between road warriors and kings of home court. The Guardians were electric at home and every time the Yankees leave New York, they seem to improve.
My personal belief is that former is shaded by Cleveland playing in a rather weak AL Central, but we saw that it does truly fight a bit differently in its own stadium, and who am I to dispel the magic of fans screaming their heads off in the final moments of a playoff game.
Nonetheless, it has clearly been the Yankees who have had more control of the series thus far. Even if they let a game slip away at the last moment, the way that Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres and Giancarlo Stanton are swinging a bat make the top of the New York order as formidable as it has looked all season. I am on the Yankees.
Pick: Yankees moneyline
Run Line (Spread)
The run line, to me, is a tough bet in the playoffs. There is less and less reason for teams to play for a decisive win.
In the regular season, big leads can help managers keep bullpens fresh and work in the arms that maybe are more liable to allow some runs. In the playoffs, it's all hands on deck and the best players are pushed to their limits with one goal — score one more run than the guys in the other dugout.
Thus, I'll likely always default to the high chance of tonight's contest being settled by just a single run, and trust my data that indicates the valuable play is on Cleveland +1.5, even though I have value on the Yankees ML. In fact, I'd go as far to say that a prop on New York to win by exactly one run is a good play tonight if you want a high-odds sprinkle.
Over/Under
The total today is set at 7 and that is anticipating another tight contest with superb pitching and short leashes on any arms that might grace the mound. That is what the playoffs are.
There are no limits to how precautionary teams will be, especially if losing were to put them in a scenario where they would need to win three straight games. As a manager you do whatever you can to win here on both sides, which means the under should have plenty of value even at the low number.
I like the first five innings (F5) under a good deal; I think the short leash means the most early on. If you want a real interesting angle, the first seven innings under should be sharp with where the top arms might be used out of the bullpen.
