The Cleveland Guardians put forth yet another pesky effort on Friday night, but it wasn’t enough and now their season is on the brink on Saturday against the New York Yankees in ALCS Game 5. First pitch at Progressive Field is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on TBS, truTV and Max — other viewing/streaming options include MLB.TV, Fubo and Sling TV.
Yankees vs Guardians Game 5 odds have the Yankees as -125 moneyline favorites and the Guardians as +105 underdogs. The over/under is 7.5 (-120o / +100u). The Yankees are +135 to cover their run line (-1.5) and the Guardians are -160 (+1.5).
Below you can find my preview for this potential elimination game, which includes probable pitchers (Carlos Rodon and Tanner Bibee), Game 5 starting lineups, betting trends and my Yankees vs Guardians predictions and picks for Saturday, October 19.
My Yankees vs Guardians Predictions for Game 5
- Yankees vs Guardians picks: Over 7.5 (-115) | Play to 8
My Yankees vs Guardians best bet is the over, where I see value at 7.5. The best line is available at Caesars, but make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Guardians Odds, Predictions
| New York Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-125 | 7.5 -120o / +100u | -1.5 +135 |
| Cleveland Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+105 | 7.5 -120o / +100u | +1.5 -160 |
- Yankees vs Guardians Moneyline: Yankees -125, Guardians +105
- Yankees vs Guardians Total: Over/Under 7.5 (-120o / +100u)
- Yankees vs Guardians Run Line: Yankees -1.5 (+135), Guardians +1.5 (-160)
Yankees vs Guardians Game 5 Probable Pitchers
| LHP Carlos Rodón (NYY) | Stat | RHP Tanner Bibee (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 16-9 | W-L | 12-8 |
| 1.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.3 |
| 3.96/4.14 | ERA /xERA | 3.47/3.80 |
| 4.39/4.09 | FIP / xFIP | 3.56/3.72 |
| 1.22 | WHIP | 1.12 |
| 18.8% | K-BB% | 20.1% |
| 33.8% | GB% | 34.6% |
| 122 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 97 | Location+ | 103 |
Yankees vs Guardians Previews, Predictions, Starting Lineups
Yankees Game 5 Betting Preview
Yankees Game 5 Lineup
- Gleyber Torres (2B)
- Juan Soto (RF)
- Aaron Judge (CF)
- Giancarlo Stanton (DH)
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (3B)
- Anthony Rizzo (1B)
- Anthony Volpe (SS)
- Austin Wells (C)
- Alex Verdugo (LF)
Rodón posted a 3.96 ERA and a 4.14 xERA in the regular season. His Average Exit Velocity was above 90 mph and his Hard-Hit Rate was below average. His ground-ball rate ranked in the eighth percentile and he also allowed plenty of barrels. That said, his arsenal can be nasty. He struck out 26.5% of batters and walked less than 8%. His whiff and chase rates were also well above average.
Now, the Yankees have done damage at the plate. They have a playoff wRC+ of 115 with a 19.8% strikeout rate and a 16.5% walk rate. They have several hitters with an xwOBA over .320 off of righties over the past month and have numerous players who can hit the ball out of the yard.
The Yankees have a 3.88 xFIP in the playoffs and have had issues with closing games all season. In fact, those issues came to the surface when Luke Weaver yielded a game-tying home run to Jhonkensy Noel in Game 3. Cleveland has seen enough of New York’s best relievers to notch some runs, especially if the Guardians knock Rodón out of this game early.
Guardians Game 5 Betting Preview
Guardians Game 5 Lineup
- Steven Kwan (LF)
- David Fry (DH)
- Jose Ramirez (3B)
- Lane Thomas (CF)
- Josh Naylor (1B)
- Jhonkensy Noel (RF)
- Bo Naylor (C)
- Andres Gimenez (2B)
- Brayan Rocchio (SS)
Bibee had a 3.47 ERA and a 3.80 xERA in the regular season. His Average Exit Velocity was 88.4 mph and he had an above-average Hard-Hit Rate. His ground-ball rate ranked in the 10th percentile, so guys like Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge could find success.
Bibee walked a little more than 6% of batters this year and had a strikeout rate over 26%, but allowed five hits and a walk over 1 1/3 innings against the Yankees earlier in this postseason.
Cleveland’s lineup has a 94 wRC+, and Game 3 certainly helped this lineup gain some confidence. The Guardians have a 7.6% walk rate and a 22.2% strikeout rate. They also have four hitters with an xwOBA over .300 over the past month.
In relief, the Guardians hold a 4.09 xFIP this postseason. Emmanuel Clase hasn't looked the same and New York seemingly has his number at this point. In addition, Cleveland is walking nearly 13% of opposing batters, so the Yankees' discipline and patience could present issues late in this game.
Yankees vs Guardians Lines, Game 5 Betting Analysis
Bibee and Rodón have had issues in the playoffs and both of these lineups have looked strong enough this series to push these starters out of the game early.
Each bullpen has struggled and, at this point in the series, the hitters have all seen plenty of the opposing pitching staffs. Take the over from 7.5 to 8.
Pick: Over 7.5 | Play to 8
Moneyline
I'm going to pass on the Yankees vs. Guardians moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm not betting the Guardians vs. Yankees ALCS Game 5 run line.
Over/Under
I'm betting the over in the game at 7.5 and would play that up to 8.
Yankees Trends
- Alex Verdugo has an OPS of just .695 since last season — 13th worst in MLB– 11th Percentile
- 44% of fastball strikeouts for Juan Soto are located out of the zone since last season — 10th highest in MLB– 89th Percentile
Guardians Trends
- 52% of Tanner Bibee fastball strikeouts are located out of the zone since last season — highest among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP– 100th Percentile
Yankees vs Guardians Game 5 Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024 |
| Time: | 8:08 p.m. ET |
| TV Channel/Live Streaming: | TBS, truTV, Max / MLB.TV, Fubo, Sling TV |
Guardians vs Yankees Key Injuries
Yankees Injuries & News
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| LHP Nestor Cortes | Left elbow flexor strain (potential World Series return) |
