The Yankees may have been blanked by the Tigers on Saturday, but they remain one of the hotter teams in baseball and will look to lock up a third straight series victory on Sunday night in Williamsport when they take on the Tigers at 7:10 p.m. ET in the Little League Classic.
So, let's get to my Yankees vs. Tigers prediction.
New York can maintain its one-game lead over Baltimore in the AL East with a win and will also hope to get Marcus Stroman on the right track after a rough patch over his past few outings.
Yankees vs Tigers Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+104 | 8 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -205 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-122 | 8 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +170 |
Yankees vs Tigers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Marcus Stroman (NYY) | Stat | LHP Tarik Skubal (DET) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-6 | W-L | 14-4 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 4.4 |
| 4.01/4.95 | ERA /xERA | 2.53/2.82 |
| 5.15/4.78 | FIP / xFIP | 2.64/2.89 |
| 1.40 | WHIP | 0.92 |
| 6.7% | K-BB% | 25.5% |
| 48.9% | GB% | 45% |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 96 | Location+ | 103 |
Kenny Ducey's Yankees vs Tigers Preview
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Favorable Matchup for Marcus Stroman
Stroman and the Yankees endured his worst stretch of the season as the calendar turned to August, as the right-hander allowed 12 runs (10 earned) across two starts versus the Red Sox and Blue Jays on a stunning 17 hits over just six innings. It certainly was something many expected, given many of Stroman's metrics point to the fact that he'd been a rather fortunate pitcher this year, but matching up with two teams that can do damage against ground-ball pitchers certainly went a long way towards sending his numbers tumbling.
He faced a Rangers team that's averse to ground-ballers one week ago, and he fared much better with just one run allowed on four hits against him — and he's now made it two straight starts without allowing a home run. As an extreme ground-baller, these bad matchups will present themselves from time to time — and when they do, his lack of strikeouts and frequent issues with walks will give him no discernible way out of trouble.
Sunday isn't one of those, however, with the Tigers ranking second-worst in baseball in OPS to ground-ballers and dead-last in the split with an unsightly .206 average. For reference, that's almost 60 points lower than the league median, and it should help the contact-oriented righty continue to right the ship for the Yankees.
As for the offense, things have hit a bit of a snag over the past two days with just three runs in two games against the Tigers, but the Yankees remain the third-best team in the league over the past two weeks with a 131 wRC+ and they have continued their dominance in the strikeout and walk departments. They also continue to slug better than every team in the league with a .219 ISO — and it's now been nearly two months that New York has hit the ball with authority despite some wavering results.
Detroit Tigers Betting Preview: Tarik Skubal is Truly an Ace
The Tigers will enter this game with a massive advantage, handing the ball to one of the league's best pitchers in Tarik Skubal. The southpaw owns a stellar 2.82 xERA, fueled by a dominant 30.5% strikeout rate and a hefty complement of weakly-hit ground balls.
Skubal has maintained an excellent .211 Expected Batting Average, even in what's statistically been his worst month of the year. In August, he's stumbled slightly to a 3.72 ERA but has still struck out 26 batters in 19 1/3 frames, and his issues have stemmed from one poor start against the Royals on August 2 where he allowed five runs on seven hits and two walks — and most importantly allowed a home run, which he's now done in three of his past four outings.
Still, you'd expect Skubal to shove against a team he dominated back in May, when he allowed two earned runs over six innings with a stunning 12 punchouts. New York has been decidedly worse against left-handed pitching this year, ranking 13th in wRC+ as opposed to third in the reverse split, and while its strikeout rate has been around one point higher, it's experienced a near-50 point drop in Isolated Power.
Detroit has had its fair share of issues against ground-ball pitchers, but it will at least bring some good form into this meeting with a 112 wRC+ over the past week to rank 12th in baseball — and in that time has posted a massive .203 ISO around a poor 5% walk rate to go along with more strikeouts.
Yankees vs Tigers Pick: Take the Under
Unlike some other neutral sites we've handicapped in the past, Muncy Bank Ballpark at Historic Bowman Field in Williamsport appears to be quite normal in terms of its construction. It is 323 feet to left field, 331 to right field, and 411 to center field. After two high-scoring games to open up the Classic in 2017 and 2018, each of the past four games have produced eight runs or fewer with an average of just 6.5 runs per game.
I'm going to play this one pretty straight-up as a result, and perhaps we should give some further credence to both pitchers if it's all the same. I do think both arms are in a great spot given what we've covered above; the Yankees have had well-documented struggles against lefties and will now have to try and break through against a pitcher who made life difficult on them earlier in the year and is working on a Cy Young-caliber season.
Detroit, meanwhile, doesn't have the same ability as some of the other teams that have burned Stroman in recent starts. The Tigers have been dreadful against ground-ball pitchers, and without the ability to take walks, we should see the right-hander cruise in this one.
I think this one is destined to give us yet another under at Muncy Bank Ballpark as a result.
Moneyline
We've tracked some sharp action on the Tigers to win this game as slim favorites, but the big money is on the Yankees here. While just 41% of bettors are going with New York, it's accounted for a hefty 86% of the cash. Still, we've seen this line — which opened as a pick 'em — drift firmly towards Detroit.
Run Line (Spread)
The Tigers are 4-1 against the spread over the past five games, yes, but the trend to know here is that as underdogs the Yankees have cashed the run line in 82.6% of their games, going a fantastic 19-4.
Over/Under
The under is 14-8-1 in games where the Yankees enter as underdogs, and it's now cashed in three of their last four. The Tigers have also played to the Under in four straight, and with that we've tracked sharp money hitting the under in this one.
