Yankees vs Royals Predictions, Picks, Game 4 Odds

The Kansas City Royals face a do-or-die Game 4 in the ALDS against the New York Yankees on Thursday night at Kauffman Stadium. First pitch is set for 8:08 p.m. ET; the contest will be broadcast on TBS, truTV and Max.

The Yankees took a 2-1 series lead on Wednesday night despite enduring another brutal night at the plate, but things may get a bit easier when they face Michael Wacha for the second time in this series — a man they got to very early in Game 1 on Saturday. The onus will then be on Gerrit Cole, who struggled opposite Wacha in that contest, to shut down a Royals offense that has shockingly produced better results than New York so far — and has been excellent at home all season.

Let's get into my Yankees vs Royals predictions and picks — plus Game 4 odds, starting lineups, probable pitchers and more.

My Yankees vs Royals Game 4 Prediction

• Yankees vs Royals picks: Over 7.5 (-115 | Play to Over 8 -110)

My Royals vs Yankees best bet is on Over 7.5, where I see value at -115. The best line is available at Caesars, but make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.

Thursday, Oct 10

8:08 p.m. ET

Max

Yankees Odds
Run Line	Over/Under	Moneyline
-1.5 +105	8 -110o / -110u	-155

Royals Odds
Run Line	Over/Under	Moneyline
+1.5 -125	8 -110o / -110u	+130

Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

• Yankees vs Royals Moneyline: Yankees -155, Royals +130
• Yankees vs Royals Total: Over/Under 8 (-110o / -110u)
• Yankees vs Royals Run Line: Yankees -1.5 (+105), Royals +1.5 (-125)

Yankees vs Royals Game 4 Lineups, Previews, Predictions

Yankees Betting Preview

Yankees 4 Game Lineup

1. Gleyber Torres (2B)
2. Juan Soto (RF)
3. Aaron Judge (CF)
4. Austin Wells (C)
5. Giancarlo Stanton (DH)
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (3B)
7. Anthony Volpe (SS)
8. Alex Verdugo (LF)
9. Jon Berti (1B0

The Yankees' offense found just enough on Wednesday to take a 2-1 lead in this series, but it should be said that this has been a pretty brutal lineup to watch over the past three games.

Hitting just .211 in the series, the Yankees have relied upon a boisterous 18.5% walk rate and some well-placed power. But without hits, it's going to be very difficult to capitalize on all the walks they're taking. Unless New York is coming up with three or more walks in an inning, this simply won't be a winning strategy — especially if the Yankees continue at a one-homer-per-game pace.

The saving grace here may be the fact that the Yankees have put up a .259 Expected Batting Average, which, as you can see, is much more palatable than their actual results. Furthermore, their .479 Expected Slugging is a whopping 142 points lower than what they've produced. There's good reason for this, considering Kansas City's defense sat atop baseball in Outs Above Average this season, but you'd still expect some positive regression here even if it's marginal.

There certainly won't be positive regression heading Gerrit Cole's way if he manages to pitch the way he did in Game 1 of this series. He allowed seven hits to the Royals, including a home run, and didn't fall victim to bad luck with a .355 xBA and .719 xSLG against him in that one. His strikeout rate, which had been growing by leaps and bounds down the stretch, fell under 18% in that start against a very punchout-prone Royals side, and he also issued two walks to boot.

This was a pitcher who entered the series with a postseason ERA under three runs and pitched to a 2.25 ERA in the final two months of the season, however, so perhaps he can pull up his bootstraps and produce in a closeout game.

Royals Betting Preview

Royals Game 4 Lineup

1. Michael Massey (2B)
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (SS)
3. Vinnie Pasquantino (DH)
4. Salvador Perez (C)
5. Yuli Gurriel (1B)
6. MJ Melendez (LF)
7. Tommy Pham (RF)
8. Kyle Isbel (CF)
9. Maikel Garcia (3B)

The Royals didn't exactly get Michael Wacha's best outing when these two pitchers squared off in Game 1, either. An expert in limiting free passes, Wacha allowed three walks over four frames and gave up four hits — three of which went for extra bases.

His xBA came in at a neater .266 in that one, but the walks and a tough .535 xSLG told the tale for him there. Yes, Wacha will theoretically enjoy life as a fly-ball pitcher away from Yankee Stadium this go-round, particularly considering New York's preference for ground-ball arms, but a more spacious outfield could very well mean the Yankees are able to turn around some of their poor batted ball luck on grounders.

The Yankees hit a strong .257 at Kauffman Stadium this year, though they did manage just four hits in Wednesday's Game 3 and will have to solve a pitcher in Wacha who's pitched to an excellent 2.89 ERA at home this year.

Kansas City's lineup enjoys home games, too, posting an OPS 62 points higher than its number on the road, and it's now hit .240 in this series after entering the postseason as one of the very worst offenses in baseball over the final two weeks of the regular season. Strikeouts have still been a slight concern, but Wednesday certainly was a step in the right direction.

Yankees vs Royals Prediction & Game 4 Betting Analysis

This series has been a bit of a slog offensively save for one big inning by the Royals in Game 2, but I do think this could be the night where both sides begin to really move runners around the bases.

Considering both pitchers have done a good job all year of limiting walks, we to have to be encouraged by what we saw in Game 1 of this series when Wacha and Cole squared off. I'm also expecting some better luck on batted balls for the Yankees, who will find more room in this spacious outfield in Kansas City and did hit Wacha quite well in Game 1, which should lead to several runs with the way this team's been drawing walks.

Cole's start in Game 1 was a bit of a mystery, but I think we have to read into that one-game sample for the sheer reason that a team that struck out more than 26% of the time in the final two weeks of the season managed to make plenty of contact against the right-hander. The Yankees' defense ranked in the bottom five in OAA this year and will now have to cover a lot more ground in this park.

I'm backing the over here to eight runs.

Pick: Over 7.5 (-115)

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Moneyline

We've tracked some big money hitting the Royals in this one, and with that, the line has moved ever so slightly in Kansas City's favor with the Yankees falling to -155 from the opening line of -160.

Pick: Pass

Run Line (Spread)

The Yankees have gone a handsome 49-33 to the run line on the road this season, though dating back to the regular season, they've covered in just one of their last six — which was Game 1 of this series.

Over/Under

The sharp action is hitting the under in this game, perhaps as a result of that bet hitting in the past two games of the series. With that said, the Yankees rank fifth baseball with a 60.3% hit rate to the over as road favorites, while Kansas City has gone an acceptable 15-14-1 to the over as home underdogs.

Pick: Over 7.5

Yankees Betting Trends

• Yankees are 45-36 in their road games against the spread
• The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Yankees' last 5 games
• Gerrit Cole has allowed a SLG of just .342 on fastballs since last season — sixth best among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP– 96th Percentile

Royals Betting Trends

• Royals are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
• The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Royals' last 5 games
• The totals have gone OVER in 38 of Royals' 81 last games at home