The New York Yankees (89-64) will stay out west to kick off a series against the Oakland Athletics (67-86) on Friday night. This matchup will see Gerrit Cole take on J.T. Ginn in the Oakland Coliseum, with first pitch set for 9:40 p.m. ET on YES and NBC Sports Bay Area. Let’s dive into my Yankees vs A's predictions and picks for Friday, September 20, after a quick recap of where both teams stand in the MLB postseason picture.
The Yankees are 7-3 over their last 10 games while the Baltimore Orioles have sputtered to a 3-7 mark. This has helped New York pull out to a four-game lead in the AL East standings entering Friday. Oakland is not in postseason contention as the A's sit 13 games out of an AL wild-card spot, but they are 5-5 over their last 10 games and have won two straight entering today.
Yankees-A's Prediction
- Yankees vs A's pick: Athletics F5 Over 1.5 Runs (-125)
My Yankees vs Athletics best bet is on Oakland's first five innings (F5) team total over 1.5 runs, where I see value at -125 down to -135. The best line is available at DraftKings, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
New York Yankees vs Oakland Athletics Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-188 | 8 -106o / -114u | -1.5 -114 |
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+158 | 8 -106o / -114u | +1.5 -105 |
- Yankees-Athletics Moneyline: Yankees -188 | A's +158
- Yankees-Athletics Total: Over/Under 8 (-106o / -114u)
- Yankees-Athletics Spread: Yankees -1.5 (-114) | A's +1.5 (-105)
Yankees-A's Probable Pitchers
| RHP Gerrit Cole (NYY) | Stat | RHP J.T. Ginn (OAK) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-5 | W-L | 0-1 |
| 1.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 3.97 / 3.90 | ERA /xERA | 4.94 / 4.75 |
| 4.03 / 4.12 | FIP / xFIP | 4.44 / 3.84 |
| 1.27 | WHIP | 1.39 |
| 17.8% | K-BB% | 16.7% |
| 36.2% | GB% | 43.7% |
| 112 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 101 | Location+ | 99 |
Cody Goggin’s Yankees-A's Series Opener Preview
Yankees Betting Preview: Gerrit Cole Takes the Mound
Gerrit Cole will take the mound for New York tonight. The Cy Young award winner has thrown 79⅓ innings since coming back from injury with a 3.97 ERA, 3.90 xERA, and a 3.84 SIERA. Cole still has an impressive Stuff+ of 112, but this is down from 121 last season and 139 in 2022. Cole’s strikeout rate ranks in the 71st percentile among qualifying pitchers, which is still well above average, but has been trending down over the last couple of years.
Cole has a 48th percentile walk rate and a 16th percentile ground ball rate. He has a 34th percentile hard hit rate allowed, 49th percentile barrel rate allowed, and 22nd percentile average exit velocity.
New York’s offense has been one of the best in the league all season long. They are tied for the league lead with a 116 wRC+. The Yankees also rank 3rd in wOBA, 4th in SLG, and 3rd in ISO. Their plate discipline has been elite with the highest walk rate in the league and the eighth-lowest strikeout rate.
The Yankees rank 2nd in hard hit rate, 1st in barrel rate, and 1st in average exit velocity. They do hit the ball on the ground at the eighth-highest rate, but they hit the ball so hard that this hasn’t mattered a ton, although they are only 25th in BABIP.
New York’s offense has fallen off as of late as well. They rank 12th in wRC+ over the last 30 days and 15th in wOBA. They have seen an uptick in strikeouts over this time and have the 4th-highest ground ball rate.
Athletics Betting Preview: Don't Sleep on the A's Lineup
The Athletics will trot out J.T. Ginn to start tonight. The rookie has a 4.94 ERA and 4.75 xERA through 23⅔ innings this season. Ginn has a 102 Stuff+ and 99 Location+, with a 22.5% strikeout rate and a 5.9% walk rate.
Ginn has struggled with allowing hard contact. He has a 43.7% hard hit rate allowed and 9.9% barrel rate allowed, which are both in the bottom-quartile of the league. Ginn’s ground ball rate of 43.7% is right around league average, but not outstanding for a pitcher that throws his sinker 52% of the time.
Oakland’s offense ranks 13th in wRC+ and 17th in wOBA this year. They are 10th in ISO and 14th in SLG, but just 24th in OBP. The Athletics rank 27th in strikeout rate this season, which has been their main downfall.
The Athletics rank 12th in hard hit rate, 8th in barrel rate, and 7th in average exit velocity this season. They have a league average ground ball rate but rank 23rd in BABIP.
Over the last 30 days, Oakland has improved to having a wRC+ of 109, which is 10th in the league over this time. They rank 6th in SLG and ISO and have cut their strikeout rate to 8th-worst, but their walk rate has also plummeted to just 6.3%, which ranks 29th in the league over this time period.
Yankees vs Athletics Prediction, Betting Analysis
Gerrit Cole is still a very good pitcher, but he looks as if he has fallen off from what he once was, which I believe gives some value to fading him in this spot. I think he still can have some success in the strikeout department against this Oakland offense, but their batted ball metrics have been strong and I think that they could score some runs against him.
J.T. Ginn is likely an average to below-average starter. I’m not looking to play anything on this side, as I don’t know what to expect from the Yankees’ offense following their recent struggles.
Instead, my best bet for this game is to take the Athletics to score over 1.5 runs in the first five innings at -125, as I would project them for closer to 2.3 runs. So, I believe there is a good margin of safety for this bet.
Pick: Oakland A's First Five Innings Team Total Over 1.5 Runs (-125) at DraftKings
Moneyline
The Yankees are 47-31 as the road team this season. Oakland has been better at home than on the road, but they are still just 36-39 straight up at home.
There likely still is a little bit of value on the full game moneyline and spread on the A’s tonight, but I’m not looking to play it with New York having the superior bullpen. The Yankees rank 7th in bullpen ERA this season while the A’s are 15th.
I still believe the Yankees should be favored but at +164 there is some value in taking this underdog.
Run Line (Spread)
Oakland is 42-33 ATS at home this season and 83-70 against the spread overall. New York has struggled ATS at home but are 42-36 ATS as the road team.
As mentioned above, I do like Oakland to keep it close tonight. At -105 on the run-line, I think that Oakland can stay within a run and potentially have a chance in this matchup.
Over/Under
Athletics’ home games have gone 39-36 to the under this season. New York has been an over team as they have played 81-67-5 to the over this season, including 40-35-1 to the over on the road.
I don’t have a bet on the total for this game, but would lean towards the over at 8.5 runs. These are two solid offenses with the Yankees being the best in the league for much of the season. They have fallen off as of late, but if they get hot then they could help push this total over.
Yankees at Athletics Betting Trends
- 90% of the bets and 93% of the money are on the Yankees moneyline.
- 78% of the bets and 68% of the money are on the over (8).
- 97% of the bets and 87% of the money are on the Yankees to cover the run line.
Yankees Betting Trends
- Yankees are 3-2 in their last 5 games
- Yankees are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Yankees are 42-36 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Yankees' last 5 games
Athletics Betting Trends
- Athletics are 2-3 in their last 5 games
- Athletics are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Athletics are 41-37 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Athletics' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 36 of Athletics' 75 last games at home
