Are we suuuuurrreee Paul Skenes is the National League Rookie of the Year?
It feels like X/Twitter wants to call the race. The books are happy to oblige, pricing Skenes as low as -250 (BetRivers) to take home the hardware.
But are we poooosssiittiivee?
I’m not. Far from it.
Paul's Problems
I don’t want to dog on the best pitching prospect of the past two decades. He’s got the stuff. He’s steadily improved his command and control since debuting. He’s been among the most productive MLB pitchers across his first eight starts, striking out 61 batters in 46 innings en route to a 2.14 ERA and 1.5 fWAR.
But I’m hesitant to believe he can sustain such a high production level with a 90% strand rate. I wouldn’t be surprised if he pitched closer to his 2.65 xERA – although still an elite mark, it does indicate some due negative regression. His batted-ball profile isn’t perfect (89 mph average exit velocity, 37th percentile; 39% hard-hit rate, 51st percentile), although that matters less when you miss so many bats.
The more significant worry is his usage. How many innings will Pittsburgh’s front office let its prized prospect pitch in his rookie year? How much leash will the Bucs give him if they fall out of the wild-card race?
Based on which projection system you query, the Pirates have between a 4% and 12% chance of making the playoffs. Why risk blowing out Skenes' arm on a long-shot possibility? The Pirates are a year away from being a genuine threat.
FanGraphs' On-Pace metrics project Skenes for 93 total innings this season, producing 3.0 fWAR in 16 starts. That feels a tad low — the consensus is he'll bank between 120 and 130 frames — but it’s still something to consider.
The last starting pitcher to win NL ROY was Jacob deGrom in 2014. He tossed 140 innings with a 2.69 ERA, generating 3.6 fWAR. Before deGrom, José Fernández won NL ROY in 2013 with 170 innings. Jeremy Hellickson won AL ROY in 2013 with 189 innings. Michael Fulmer won AL ROY in 2016 with 159 innings.
| SP ROY (Year) | IP | ERA | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Fulmer (2016) | 159.0 | 3.06 | 3.1 |
| Jacob deGrom (2014) | 140.1 | 2.69 | 3.6 |
| Jose Fernandez (2013) | 172.2 | 2.19 | 4.2 |
| Jeremy Hellickson (2011) | 189.0 | 2.95 | 2.0 |
| Dontrelle Willis (2003) | 160.2 | 3.30 | 3.4 |
| Jason Jennings (2002) | 185.1 | 4.52 | 2.1 |
Skenes is unbelievable, by both the eye test and on paper. But are we prematurely crowning him ROY? Will award voters overlook season-long usage in favor of per-inning production? Nobody has won the award with as few innings as he's likely to pitch.
For what it’s worth, workhorses have taken a backseat to per-inning production in the voter’s eyes. Consider the 2021 NL Cy Young, where Corbin Burnes beat out Zack Wheeler despite pitching almost 50 fewer innings – Burnes won the award with only 167 frames, the fewest of any Cy Young winner since closer Eric Gagne won in 2004, and the fewest of any Cy Young winner since.
Still, I can’t help but wonder. My curiosity makes me believe Skenes is overvalued in the market and that other options are worth considering.
Let’s talk about a few.
The Stone Age
Gavin Stone wasn’t even supposed to pitch for the Dodgers this year.
The room was crowded between Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Walker Buehler, Bobby Miller and James Paxton. Many thought the Dodgers would run with a six-man rotation, not involving Stone – especially considering he posted a 9.00 ERA across eight appearances last year.
Then, Buehler went down. Next was Miller, and he’s been disastrous in five starts since returning (6.75 ERA, 5.88 xERA, -0.1 fWAR). Yamamoto recently hit the 15-day IL. Paxton has lost two ticks of velocity in his age-35 season, leading to problematic underlying metrics (5.16 xFIP, 4.3% K-BB).
While Glasnow overwhelmed expectations and quickly became a surefire Cy Young candidate, the Dodgers still needed innings.
Stone is the rookie who stepped up.
Only two Dodger pitchers are currently qualified: Glasnow and Stone. The latter has tossed 89 innings across 15 starts with a 2.73 ERA, amassing the 15th-most fWAR of any NL starter (1.8). The Dodgers have won 12 of his 15 starts.
Among NL Rookies, Stone has amassed the second-most starting pitching fWAR, just behind Yamamoto. He’s been as impactful as any 2024 rookie, even more so considering L.A.’s circumstances.
Yes, that last point sounds silly. It’s the Dodgers! They have talent in droves!
As my co-worker and partner-in-crime Mike Ianniello said when debating Skenes against Stone, “It’s like you’re voting for the Pirates’ Lord and Savior or the Dodgers’ third- or fourth-best pitcher.”
But I don’t think that’s true. Stone has been the Dodgers’ second-best pitcher to this point in the season, and his role at the top of the rotation takes on more importance with half the staff shelved.
Conversely, the Pirates still have Jared Jones and Mitch Keller toward the top of their rotation. Jones leads all qualified pitchers in Stuff+ (127) while Keller has amassed the 13th-most pitching fWAR in the NL (1.8).
Who needs their guy more? The team with two other good starting pitchers and a slim shot at making the postseason, or the title contender suffering a rotation crisis?
Is Stone overperforming? Yes. His 3.60 xERA and 4.01 xFIP don’t align with his current numbers. He doesn’t have overwhelming stuff (97 Stuff+, one plus pitch), so he doesn’t miss many bats (20% strikeout, 25% whiff).
But Stone can overperform because of how much weak contact he induces. He ranks in the 85th percentile of qualified starting pitchers in barrel rate allowed (5%) and hard-hit rate allowed (33%).
He’s a changeup-heavy pitcher, offering his changeup the most (26%) of anything in his six-pitch mix. The advanced pitching models struggle to quantify changeups accurately, so his underwhelming stuff numbers make sense.
Changeups must be measured on a results basis, and Stone’s changeup is among the best in baseball. It looks mind-bending at times.
| Changeups Thrown (MLB Percentile) | SwSt% | wOBA | Run Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 346 (93rd) | 19.1% (86th) | .211 (77th) | +4 (93rd) |
Stone is commanding well (103 Location+, 7% walk rate) and inducing weak contact in front of a good defense. That’s the profile of a guy who can overcome lame-duck FIP numbers.
The most essential part of all this is usage. Good changeup-heavy, command-based, weak-contact pitchers are workhorses (see: Sandy Alcantara) and Stone averages six innings per start.
FanGraphs' On-Pace metrics project Stone for an 18-4 record and 3.6 fWAR across 176 innings. Comparatively, the site projects Yamamoto for a 12-4 record and 4.2 fWAR across 146 innings, and Skenes for an 8-0 record and 3.0 fWAR across 92 innings.
Imagine if Stone throws 50 more innings than any other NL ROY pitching candidate as a vital and quality innings-eater for a World Series contender in need of innings. Imagine he sustains a low-3.00s ERA while doing it. Imagine that Yamamoto continues to struggle with injuries, and the Pirates shut down Skenes in early September.
I don’t know if I’m typing crazy into my keyboard, but that narrative makes sense. Stone isn’t the most talented horse in this race, but he could be the most dependable.
He’s also getting better. After allowing 12 earned across his first 18 innings, he’s posted a 1.90 ERA and .96 WHIP in 11 starts since, capitalized by a shutout of the White Sox.
At the minimum, Stone is worth a flier at 40-to-1 odds. I suspect he garners top-five voting interest once the time comes.
Pick: Gavin Stone NL ROY (+4000, DraftKings)
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The Guy Nobody Is Talking About
It seems like Joey Ortiz is running under the radar. He leads all NL rookies in fWAR (2.6) by a considerable margin (Yamamoto is second with 2.1), yet is priced as high as +1500 (FanDuel) in the markets.
Ortiz’s plate discipline is spectacular (14% walk rate, 16% strikeout rate). While his power numbers don’t pop off the page, his bat speed does (75 mph, 84th percentile), potentially indicating he could add to his seven-homer total in the second half.
FanGraphs' On-Pace metrics project Ortiz as Milwaukee’s second-most valuable position player (5.2 fWAR), with 14 homers and 64 RBIs across 500 PAs. He adds excellent defense at the hot corner (+6 Outs Above Average, 95th percentile).
I’m concerned he’s overperforming, as his quality-of-contact numbers (.398 xSLG) indicate he shouldn’t be producing as much power (.455 SLG). But it’s easy to overperform when you rank above the 90th percentile of qualified hitters in every available plate discipline metric.
Even more impressive is how impactful Ortiz has been for a division-leading team. The Brewers are an excellent all-around squad with a six-game lead in the NL Central, and Ortiz is a big input in their offensive and defensive equations.
Ortiz is slashing .275/.380/.455 for a 139 wRC+ and is gobbling up every grounder at a premier position. No other rookie can touch that.
He might be garnering more attention if he played for a big-market team. For now, it might be wise to take advantage of the unaware.
Pick: Joey Ortiz NL ROY (+1500, FanDuel)
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