With both underdogs winning last night, things are starting to get seriously interesting in each league's Championship Series.
The Braves and Dodgers play again tonight at 7:30 p.m. ET, and the Dodgers are big favorites as Max Scherzer takes the mound.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool loves Scherzer tonight, and his strikeout total is my best play for tonight's NLCS Game 2.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Max Scherzer Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-155)
| Dodgers vs. Braves | Dodgers (-175) |
| Time | 7:37 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetMGM |
The Dodgers opted for a bullpen day yesterday, which means they'll be relying on Scherzer to pitch them to a win tonight.
That shouldn't be too difficult, considering the Dodgers have won seven of Scherzer's eight starts since he was traded from Washington. More importantly, I'm expecting Scherzer to give the Dodgers considerable length while missing a lot of bats.
In 15 home starts this season, Scherzer has struck out seven or more in 13 of them — that's an 87% hit rate that implies -650 odds to the over. Plus, Scherzer's made a start against the Braves twice this season, both times striking out nine over six innings.
Because while the Braves have a talented lineup, they're also prone to striking out. The Dodgers have posted the fourth-highest strikeout rate vs. RHPs over the past 30 days (26.6%) and the eighth-highest on the 2021 season (24.6%).
Considering Scherzer ranks in the 90th percentile or better in strikeouts per inning (1.32), swinging-strike rate (16.1%), and called strike plus whiff rate (31.9%), he shouldn't have an issue missing more Braves bats today.
FanGraphs SaberSim projections have Scherzer notching 7.15 Ks tonight, while our Action Labs Player Prop tool has him at a whopping 8.6. Either way, there's tons of value at the 6.5 number BetMGM is offering.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
