Prop bets can be a great way to get action on a game. Bookmakers don’t have to worry about taking a lot of action on them, so there isn’t as great an incentive to post a competitive line.
As a result, props can be some of the most exploitable bets on the board.
These props can become downright unfair when you combine them with the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool.
We leverage props from five of the most popular sportsbooks against our projections and award each prop a grade. The most exploitable props earn a Bet Quality of 10 out of 10, and those props have historically crushed during NBA and NFL season.
Thursday’s props focus on MLB, specifically the National League Division Series showdowns between the Rockies and Brewers at 5:07 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1 and Braves and Dodgers at 8:37 p.m. ET on the MLB Network.
Let’s dive in to two props that I feel are offering significant value:
Rockies 3B Nolan Arenado
The Pick: Will not get a hit
Arenado has the reputation of being one of the best hitters in baseball, but he’s pretty mediocre against right-handed pitchers. He posted a .267 batting average against right-handers in 2018, and that number drops to just .222 when away from Coors Field.
The Brewers are planning on opening with their bullpen Thursday, which should also hurt Arenado’s cause. He likely won’t see any pitcher for more than one at-bat, and virtually all those at-bats will come against right-handed pitchers.
If he does see a left-hander Thursday, it will likely be Josh Hader — and hitting off him is no picnic: He limited opposing batters to a .131 batting average this season. I’m willing to take a chance on this prop at better than even money.
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers
The Pick: No score first inning (-125)
One of the best resources at the Action Network is the ability to pick the brain of a former All-Star catcher. Paul Lo Duca spent seven years with the Dodgers, so he’s as qualified as anyone to talk about the potential impact of the odd 5:37 p.m. PT start time for this contest.
He says the shadows between the pitching mound and home plate make hitting conditions really difficult at this time of day, so expect the offenses to be limited in the early innings.
The fact that both teams are sending quality starting pitchers to the mound should only help matters. Mike Foltynewicz posted a 2.85 ERA in 2018, while Hyun-Jin Ryu has allowed just one earned run over his past 19 innings pitched.
