No, Your Dylan Cease Overs Won’t Be Refunded: Here’s Why They Shouldn’t Be

On Tuesday night, Padres ace Dylan Cease took the mound for just his second start since throwing a no-hitter vs. the Nationals last month.

Cease had two strikeouts in his first inning vs. the Pirates in Pittsburgh. Then, as he got ready to step out for the start of the second, rain came down.

Of course, it was in the forecast — Tropical Storm Debby was due to terrorize the east coast that night through Friday. The umpires had decided to start the game even with the impending weather threat.

The delay was scheduled to be under an hour, perhaps enough for Cease to get back out there. After all, prior to his no-hitter against the Nationals, he was forced to endure a roughly hour delay in between innings, too.

Most starters won't go back out there for a delay more than roughly 45 minutes. Cease has a history of doing so. So, when the rain subsided and the game resumed about an hour later, he was on the hill, ready to go.

But there was a problem. While the rain had stopped, the Pirates' grounds crew had problems cleaning the warning track, which had been flooded with water.

Naturally, conspiracists online indicated it was all a Pirates ploy to knock Cease out of the game.

The game was delayed for another two hours due to the flooding in the outfield, and lo and behold, Cease had to eventually be pulled from the game due to the lengthy pause in action.

And bettors on his over on strikeouts, walks or otherwise clamored with sportsbooks to refund their wagers. No major American sportsbook did, paying out all under bets as winners and all over bets as losers. (One non-sportsbook, PrizePicks, offered a "reboot" on Cease wagers.)

But these are the risks of betting on overs. It's already baked into the odds.

If operators consistently refunded these sorts of wagers — when pitchers get injured and have to leave games early; after rain delays — the over would be juiced even further.

For instance, Cease's over on 7.5 strikeouts was roughly -115 heading into Tuesday night's contest. If voids in those aforementioned situations were baked into the odds, you'd consistently get -140 to -150 because there's less downside risk due to injury or weather.

Betting on unders, meanwhile, would be completely useless if the value of a pitcher leaving a game prematurely is factored out. This upside is baked into the odds.

If sportsbooks voided all bets when a pitcher is pulled earlier than expected, market equilibrium would dictate far better payouts for unders.

For instance, a -105 bet on an under on 7.5 strikeouts that has upside due to injury or weather would be something like +125 without that benefit. But it's not priced that way.

Simply put: it's all baked into the market. Know the inherent risks when placing a wager.