The Oakland Athletics (64-82) and Houston Astros (77-68) wrap their three-game series on Thursday afternoon at Minute Maid Park. First pitch for this AL West series finale is set for 2:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on NBC Sports Bay Area and Space City Home Network.
The Astros enter Thursday surprisingly at risk of getting swept by the A's. The Astros' lead in the AL West over the Mariners is down to just 3 1/2 games, and to add on to the their bad news, star second baseman Jose Altuve was injured on Wednesday. Altuve is reportedly day to day as he deals with right side discomfort — he is not in Houston's starting lineup for the series finale.
Can the Astros stop the bleeding and get back on the winning path? See how I think it will play out in my Athletics vs Astros prediction for Thursday, September 12.
Athletics-Astros Predictions
- Athletics-Astros picks: Under 8 (Bet to Under 7)
My Athletics-Astros best bet and prediction is on the under, where I see value at 8. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Athletics vs Astros Odds
| Oakland Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+228 | 8 -110o / -110u | +1.5 -105 |
| Houston Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-285 | 8 -110o / -110u | -1.5 -125 |
- A's-Astros Moneyline: Athletics +228 | Astros -285
- Athletics-Astros Over/Under: 8 total runs (-110/-110)
- Athletics-Astros Spread: A's +1.5 (-105) | Astros -1.5 (-125)
Probable Starting Pitchers for A's at Astros
| RHP Mitch Spence (OAK) | Stat | LHP Framber Valdez (HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-9 | W-L | 14-6 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.4 |
| 4.42/3.88 | ERA /xERA | 2.97/3.34 |
| 4.08/4.09 | FIP / xFIP | 3.21/3.11 |
| 1.37 | WHIP | 1.09 |
| 12.6% | K-BB% | 16.5% |
| 48.5% | GB% | 60.1% |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 113 |
| 102 | Location+ | 97 |
Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros Preview & Prediction
A's Betting Preview: Mitch Spence Flying Under the Radar
Spence, who has logged over 130 innings this year, has a 4.42 ERA but a 3.88 xERA, so good results could be headed his way soon. The 26-year-old's Hard-Hit Rate is below average and his Average Exit Velocity is just under 90 mph, but he does rank in the 79th percentile in ground-ball rate. His walk rate is also above average, although he does not miss many bats.
On offense, Oakland has a 78 wRC+, an 8.8% walk rate and a 22.3% strikeout rate against lefties over the last month. The A's only have three active bats above a .330 xwOBA, so the majority of this lineup has struggled against southpaws — and Valdez is a tough task. Additionally, with those parameters in place, Oakland has a high ground-ball rate, so this matchup with Valdez may not bode well.
In relief, Oakland has a 4.30 xFIP, 13.2% walk rate and 24.9% strikeout rate. While walks have been an issue as a whole, the A’s still have four arms under a 4.00 xFIP.
Since Spence has been sharp in recent starts, he should have reliable backup upon his eventual exit from the game.
Astros Betting Preview: Framber Valdez the Worm Killer
Valdez has a 2.98 ERA and a 3.34 xERA; his Hard-Hit Rate is in the 6th percentile and he has an Average Exit Velocity right around 90 mph.
However, he strikes out 24.6% of batters he faces, with an 8% walk rate. His ground-ball rate is the story, where he ranks in the 98th percentile. Being able to limit barrels and keep the ball on the ground — while missing some bats — are major keys to his stability as a starter.
The Astros have a 114 wRC+, 7.4% walk rate and 21.7% strikeout rate in the last month off righties. They have five batters with more than 10 plate appearances above a .330 xwOBA. Kyle Tucker only has seven plate appearances in the last month against righties, but he is above that mark, as well. That said, the Astros have a high ground-ball rate, which should play into Spence’s hands and give him a path to an effective outing.
The Astros' relief staff has been great. They have a 3.86 xFIP with a 9.1% walk rate and 27.1% strikeout rate. They have some issues with free passes in relief, but they still have six arms under a 4.00 xFIP. This is more than enough to back up Valdez.
Athletics-Astros Prediction, Betting Analysis
Look for the under to hit in this one.
Spence and Valdez have been too good at keeping the ball on the ground. Both lineups hit plenty of grounders and are pretty weak at the bottom of the order. Both bullpens should be able to effectively lock down the batters to end the game, as well.
Pick: Under 8 to 7
Moneyline
-235 (Pass)
Run Line (Spread)
-1.5 (Pass)
Over/Under
8 (Yes)
Athletics-Astros Betting Trends
- 93% of the bets and 86% of the money are on the Astros moneyline.
- 86% of the bets and 69% of the money are on the over.
- 94% of the bets and 93% of the money are on the Astros to cover the run line.
Athletics Betting Trends
- Athletics are 3-2 in their last 5 games
- Athletics are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Athletics are 37-33 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Athletics' last 5 games
Astros Betting Trends
- Astros are 2-3 in their last 5 games
- Astros are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Astros' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 31 of Astros' 72 last games at home
