Baltimore Orioles vs Oakland Athletics Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-195 | 8 -110o / -110u | -1.5 -110 |
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+162 | 8 -110o / -110u | +1.5 -110 |
The Oakland Athletics smashed the Baltimore Orioles by a score of 19-8 yesterday, one of the most shocking results of the day. The A’s can take 2-of-3 on Sunday against the American League’s top dog.
It’ll be young phenom right-hander Grayson Rodriguez on the mound for Baltimore and Mitch Spence for the A’s. The market has O’s as considerable moneyline favorites at -195, and the over/under is set at 8.
Let’s dive into my MLB pick and prediction for Sunday afternoon’s rubber match between Baltimore and Oakland.
Baltimore Orioles
It was surprising to see the A's completely dominate on Saturday, as the O's did not have a chance to come from behind after the 3rd inning. Luckily for them, Grayson Rodriguez gets the nod in an enticing matchup.
Rodriguez dealt with some injury issues earlier in the season, but is now back to full health and looking to build consistency. He enters Sunday's start with a 3.45 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.
His whiff and chase rates are amongst the elite of all MLB pitchers, and his average fastball velocity is one of the main reasons. Rodriguez's numbers are not too elite solely because he gives up occasional hard contact, and his walk rate is consistently in flux.
I do not doubt that Rodriguez can hold the A's offense at bay, especially coming off of a 19-run performance. Their offense is not as bad as people deem them, but I can not see them hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard in back-to-back games.
Nobody on the Orioles roster can say they have a hit against A's starting pitcher Mitch Spence. The O's are 0-9 lifetime against Spence in a small sample size of plate appearances.
Spence has been a subject of misfortune thus far, so I would not be surprised to see the O's bats struggle on Sunday. They managed to score 8 runs yesterday, but mostly all of those were when the game was out of reach.
Oakland Athletics
The key for the A's pulling off another upset victory all lies on the shoulders of Spence. Spence enters Sunday's start with a 4.15 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.
He racks up the occasional strikeout, but he relies mostly on his pitch movement and ability to generate groundballs. He has an excellent chase and walk rate.
His xERA is 3.62, which is slightly lower than his current ERA. The fact Spence does not strike out many hitters tells me that much of the contact he has given up has been a subject of misfortune.
The O's offense is no joke, but they are slightly worse against right-handed pitching as opposed to left-handed. As long as Spence can keep the ball in the park, he is going to give his team a chance to win the ball game late.
The offense has a combined six plate appearances against Rodriguez in the past. Brent Rooker is 2-2 against him, and he is the only player with any hits.
Let's face it, the A's scoring 19 runs on Saturday was an anomaly, especially since they are still batting .222 against right-handed pitching this season. The offense has a tough draw on Sunday, and I do not expect much noise from the bats.
Orioles vs. Athletics
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is the definition of a slam-dunk F5 Innings Under situational spot. The A's are coming off their best offensive performance of the season, and they might be entering the matchup on their high-horse.
Not only that, but they have to quickly turn around and face arguably the best-starting pitcher in the O's rotation. It is a dream matchup for Rodriguez, who should thrive here as long as he does not allow a ton of free passes.
Spence is not as bad as many presume him to be. He can also find success on Sunday if he keeps the ball in the park. The Orioles got killed on Saturday, but let's not forget they also scored 8-runs themselves.
To no surprise, I see a lot of public action on the full game over. But, as of Sunday morning, a lot of sharp money has come across on the under, so do not be surprised to see the total dip at some point.
I like the full-game under at 8, but love the F5 under at 4.5.
