Orioles vs. Blue Jays Odds
| Orioles Odds | +240 |
| Blue Jays Odds | -300 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 (-110/-110) |
| Time | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
Toronto came into the season as the favorite in the AL East and was expected to be the best team in the division. However, after a slow start, they are 35-24 and 8.5 games behind the scorching hot Yankees. Over the past 16 games, the Blue Jays are 12-4 and have climbed to the top of the Wild Card standings.
On the other hand, Baltimore was expected to be the worst team in the AL East, and well, they are the worst team in the AL East. At 26-35, the Orioles have been much better than last year, but are still clearly in rebuild mode.
Monday’s game will feature two young pitchers with exciting stuff, however only one of them has found success thus far.
Baltimore Orioles: Bradish Struggling Early in Career
25-year old Kyle Bradish (RHP) made his MLB debut on April 29 and has made eight starts thus far in his young career. It has been a rough start to his career as he holds a 1-3 record and 6.45 ERA. He ranks in the bottom 10% of the league in xERA, xwOBA, average exit velocity and barrel rate.
His 3.96 xFIP and 9.56 K/9 are at least a little promising, but he still holds a 6.04 xERA and has been absolutely hammered. He has allowed a home run in every start and has a 2.39 HR/9 rate. His fastball has basically been batting practice for opponents this season.
Baltimore has really struggled at the plate this season. The Orioles rank just 24th in wRC+ and 26th in wOBA. They rank in the top 10 in strikeouts and in the bottom 10 in walks.
Trey Mancini, Austin Hays and Anthony Santander are the only players on the Orioles with a wRC+ over 100 this season.
Toronto Blue Jays: Offense Clicking Over Past Two Weeks
24-year-old Alek Manoah (RHP) came on the scene firing on all cylinders in 2021. He finished last season 9-2 with a 3.22 ERA and has been even better this year. Manoah is 7-1 with a 1.81 ERA, the third best in the league.
Even his advanced numbers are excellent with a 2.74 xERA and a .276 xwOBA. He ranks in the top 3% of the league in Har-Hit% allowed. The only concern for Manoah is that his K/9 rate has dropped, but he has also cut his walk rate in half.
Toronto started the year underwhelming relative to expectations, but the Blue Jays have climbed into the top five of almost all major offensive categories. Over the past two weeks Toronto leads the league in wOBA and wRC+.
There are plenty of big names in this Blue Jays lineup, but Bo Bichette has been the team’s most consistent hitter throughout the season and he's been red hot over the past two weeks. The same can be said for Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel and both catchers. Oh, and they still have Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Orioles-Blue Jays Pick
Toronto is averaging 6.8 runs per game over the past two weeks. They also lead the league in wOBA and wRC+ over that stretch and are hitting .310 as a team.
Few pitchers in the league have allowed more hard contact and a higher average exit velocity than Bradish this season. That is going to be trouble against a Blue Jays team that mashes the ball.
Toronto has the second highest exit velocity and leads the league in Hard-Hit rate. Guerrero and Bichette both have a Hard-Hit rate north of 50% this season and rank seventh and ninth in the league.
I am targeting the Blue Jays offense in this one. I like their Team Total over 5 at -125 or better. I also like over 2.5 for their First Five Innings team total.
Pick: Blue Jays Team Total over 5 (-114)
