Orioles vs. Cubs Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| +100 | 8 -120 / -102 | -1.5 +162 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -118 | 8 -120 / -102 | +1.5 -196 |
Cole Irvin impressed in his first outing back from injury. Kyle Hendricks also had a strong showing in his most recent appearance, allowing just two baserunners against the San Francisco Giants. However, his expected stats over the past three seasons have shown he's not the pitcher he once was. Irvin’s expected numbers are similar to Hendricks’, though Irvin yields harder contact.
That said, these teams have a major gap in how well they can hit. The Cubs have been cold against lefties in the past month, while the Baltimore Orioles have been red hot against righties. Since Baltimore also boasts a better bullpen, it should cover the short moneyline.
Baltimore Orioles
Irvin struggled before his injury, giving up 15 earned runs over 12 2/3 innings, and even though he's not a very good pitcher, those numbers were out of whack. Last year, Irvin held a 4.40 xERA against a 3.98 ERA. The April stats skew Irvin's overall profile, but he allowed just six hits and no walks over 5 1/3 innings against Kansas City in his most recent start. The Royals are a poor-hitting team, but so are the Cubs. Irvin may get knocked around at times, but he can log four-plus innings and hand the game over to a solid bullpen.
The O’s have hit righties well, which is tough news for Hendricks. In June, Baltimore has a 107 wRC+ and a .761 OPS against right-handers. Ryan Mountcastle and Cedric Mullins are on the Injured List, but Aaron Hicks has provided a boost to the offense. Baltimore has seven hitters with an xwOBA over .320 and should be able to get the job done against Hendricks.
In relief, the Orioles are much stronger than the Cubs. In June, the Orioles carry a 3.99 xFIP and have four relievers with an xFIP under 4.00. Félix Bautista has been unhittable with a .143 batting average against over four innings pitched.
Félix Bautista has retired 97 batters this year and 66 of them have been strikeouts. It's sheer lunacy. https://t.co/qZnopMs3et
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) June 15, 2023
Chicago Cubs
Hendricks can eat innings because he only walks 6.4% of hitters, which is consistent with past seasons. He also doesn't allow hard contact and ranks in the 80th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and in the 83rd percentile in Hard Hit Rate. Still, his 3.09 ERA against a 4.50 xERA shows that some negative regression is looming. He's also striking out the fewest batters in his career.
The Cubs can't hit lefties. In June, over 128 plate appearances they have a 31.3% strikeout rate, a .601 OPS and a 67 wRC+. This is becoming a trend and hasn't improved lately. Irvin has similar expected numbers to Hendricks, but facing a lineup like the Cubs can give any starter a boost.
In relief, there is a noticeable difference between the Cubs and Orioles. The Cubs have a 4.65 xFIP in June, and while they have a few good options, Hendricks could run into trouble in this matchup. That would force the Cubs to dig a bit deeper into the bullpen to cover the middle innings.
Orioles vs. Cubs Betting Pick
Overall, this line is too short for the Orioles. Yes, Irvin isn't a strong pitcher, but he bounced back after his IL stint and showed he can take care of bad-hitting teams like the Cubs. Hendricks shouldn't have as much of an edge over Baltimore's lineup. Take the O’s at -120, and play them to -140.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline | Play to -140 |
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