Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-190 | 9 +100o / -120u | -1.5 +110 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+158 | 9 +100o / -120u | +1.5 -130 |
The Chicago Cubs went to Baltimore on Tuesday knowing they needed to create a spark within their clubhouse. The Cubs find themselves at the bottom of the standings in the NL Central, and with the All-Star break looming, there's little room for error with their wild-card hopes evaporating.
Chicago took care of business, 9-2, on Tuesday, as its pitching did a fantastic job of keeping a terrific Orioles offense at bay. On Wednesday, it will be Chicago's Shota Imanaga taking on Baltimore's Corbin Burnes, giving us a premier pitching matchup.
Oddsmakers believe the Orioles will bounce back tonight. Orioles vs Cubs odds for Wednesday have the O's as -190 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8.5 (+100o / -120u).
Let's dive into my Orioles vs Cubs prediction as we take a look at the MLB odds for Wednesday, July 10.
Baltimore Orioles
Imanaga will take the mound for the Cubs tonight, and he has had a month to forget. Imanaga has posted a 6.95 ERA over the past month, mostly due to his awful home start against the Mets a couple of weeks ago.
On the season, Imanaga has a 3.16 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. His xERA comes in at 3.61, so it is safe to say his numbers are right around where they should be.
What makes the Japanese phenom special is his outstanding ability to limit walks and generate a lot of swings outside of the strike zone. He ranks in the 95th percentile in the walk rate and chase rate.
Imanaga will face the Orioles for the first time in his career, and they're coming off of a scorching hot offensive month in June. They hit .273 as a team — nearly 20 points higher than their numbers on the season (.255).
Despite the level of talent they have, the O's are bound to cool down. Imanaga is the type of arm that's more than capable of doing that.
Offensively, the Cubs get to face a familiar foe in Corbin Burnes. Before this season, Burnes spent his entire career with the Brewers, and Chicago has great numbers against him.
The Cubs' hitters are batting .282 lifetime against Burnes, compiling 31 hits over 110 at-bats. I believe the familiarity will pay huge dividends, and Chicago's capable of cashing in on some mistakes early on.
Chicago Cubs
The Orioles fell asleep after the second inning on Tuesday, and you have to tip your cap to the Cubs' pitching staff. The O's are among the elite in most offensive categories, and they're not an easy out whatsoever.
What Baltimore has going for it tonight is a bullpen edge. Plus, it's a better offensive team against left-handed pitchers.
Burnes has also been terrific for the O's, and he's critical to their success. Burnes ranks above the 85th percentile in the following metrics:
- xERA
- Chase Rate
- Hard-Hit Rate
- Fastball Velocity
- Fastball, Breaking and Off-Speed Run Value
He's the definition of an ace, but the matchup isn't as favorable as many may think. His history against the Cubs is not the best, and a lot of people interested in this game might not take that into account.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the Orioles pull out the victory late, but I have a hard time laying -175 on the moneyline given the matchup.
Orioles vs Cubs
Betting Pick & Prediction
We have a great opportunity to back the Cubs at plus-money in the first five innings. You can grab Cubs F5 +0.5 at +104 at FanDuel as of Wednesday morning, which is a great price.
Imanaga has the chops to slow down the Orioles' bats in the early portion of the game, and I like the Cubs' offensive matchup given their history against Burnes.
