Orioles vs Guardians Prediction Wednesday | MLB Odds, Picks Today (June 26)
Photo by Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images. Pictured: Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman.
Orioles vs. Guardians Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-196 | 9 -120o / +100 | -1.5 +104 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+164 | 9 -120o / +100 | +1.5 -125 |
After winning over 100 games last season, the Orioles have had a dominant first half once again. However, after defeating the Yankees 17-5 last Thursday, the Orioles have hit a bit of adversity. They have lost their last five games and have not been able to take advantage of the Yankees' struggles and still are two games back in the AL East.
On the other hand, the Guardians have. After taking the first two games of this series, the Guardians have won their last seven games and have the best record in the American League.
On Wednesday, however, the advantage may just lie with the Orioles, particularly early on. The Orioles will send Grayson Rodriguez to the mound — he will be opposed by Carlos Carrasco in the series finale.
The Orioles' losing streak started when Grayson Rodriguez was roughed up in Houston, allowing seven runs on nine hits in five innings. It was his first loss in June as he had allowed just five earned runs in 19 1/3 innings in his previous three starts.
On Wednesday, he gets to play the role of a stopper, which is one he has thrived in of late. Rodriguez has won his last four starts when the Orioles are coming off a loss. He also may be more comfortable on his home mound, where he is 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA.
Backing Rodriguez is what may be the best offense in baseball. The Orioles lead MLB in runs scored and home runs, with 12 more than any other team. They are averaging five runs at home.
Leading the way for the Orioles this season has been shortstop Gunnar Henderson. The 22-year old is second in MLB in home runs, ninth in RBI, sixth in OPS and is first in WAR. On Tuesday, Henderson hit his 25th home run and ninth in the first inning. With a right-hander getting the start for the Guardians, he should be back in his customary leadoff spot.
If Henderson does not go deep in the first inning again tonight, he can set the table. Catcher Adley Rutschman has a hit in five of his last six games. He is now hitting .300 on the dot entering Wednesday and has a 3.0 WAR.
Rutschman and Henderson are two of six Orioles with at least 10 home runs. Anthony Santander will look for another tonight, which would be his 22nd this month and 13th in June.
When it comes to the Guardians, it is hard to ignore what Steven Kwan is doing right now.
Since returning from the IL on May 31, he has a hit in 20 of his last 21 games and is batting .440 in that span. As a result, he is leading MLB with a .385 batting average, but this season he is also hitting for more power. Kwan already has seven home runs — after just 11 through his first two years — and a 1.006 OPS.
He has helped set the table for a Guardians offense that is fifth in runs scored. Jose Ramirez has homered in each of the first two games of this series, his 20th and 21st of the season. He is second in MLB with 72 RBI and fourth in home runs.
Not too far behind him is Josh Naylor, who is tied for seventh with 20 home runs. Four of them have come in the last two weeks and he is hitting .340 with a 1.052 OPS over that span.
The Guardians will need their offense to carry the team to a victory tonight with Carlos Carrasco getting the start. Since the start of last season, he is 6-14 with a 6.21 ERA while allowing 28 home runs in 155 innings.
He is coming off one of his best starts of 2024, allowing one run on four hits in six innings against the Blue Jays on Friday. However, he remains in the 35th percentile or worse in Strikeout Rate, Whiff Rate, xERA, xBA and Average Exit Velocity.
Orioles vs. Guardians
Betting Pick & Prediction
I expect two streaks to end tonight — the Guardians' winning streak and the Orioles' losing streak. However, taking the Orioles outright does not have a lot of value over -200. Given the pitching edge tonight, I will be backing the Orioles for the first five innings instead.
Over his last 33 starts, Carrasco has allowed 44 runs in the first two innings. Given the strength of the Orioles' lineup, I expect them to get to Carrasco early and often.
The Guardians' bats will not go down quietly, but Rodriguez has been dominant. He has home victories over the Yankees and Phillies at home and also tossed six scoreless against the Mariners in May. A strong five innings will work for this bet tonight.
Pick: Orioles -0.5 F5 (-145, DraftKings)
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