Orioles vs. Phillies Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+106 | 9.5 -102 / -120 | +1.5 -182 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -124 | 9.5 -102 / -120 | -1.5 +150 |
The Baltimore Orioles extended their lead in the AL East last night by taking the first game of the series against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Last night's matchup went the opposite of expectations, as Dean Kremer and Cristopher Sanchez dueled in the hitter-friendly confines of Citizens Bank Ballpark.
However, tonight's matchup could have a very different look, as a heat wave is coming to the East Coast and the wind will be blowing out to left as the game goes along.
The elements will undoubtedly boost the bats on each side, but the starting pitching matchup may accentuate that edge for one side.
What side should you back tonight? Let's take a closer look to find out.
Baltimore Orioles
As I mentioned in the intro, the Orioles appear to have finally put it all together, as they're leading the most competitive division in baseball.
A big reason why is their lineup. The O's have a great mix of young talent and veterans, making every spot in this lineup a threat.
However, they may need to lean on their pitching staff for this matchup, as the numbers suggest this offense has peaked. The Orioles' team batting average and expected batting average are precisely the same at .250, and they're due to slightly regress in the power department, as their xSLG is five points lower than their current number.
In addition to the Orioles' contact metrics, they'll have to contend with Taijuan Walker on the hill. Walker has been solid in his first season in the "City of Brotherly Love," as he's pitched to a 4.11 ERA through 20 starts.
Walker is a great guy to have on the bump tonight, as his arsenal can combat the hitter-friendly environment that he'll be in tonight. Walker has committed to generating soft contact, as he mainly attacks hitters with his splitter and sinker, which in turn has generated a ground-ball rate that's 3% above league average.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are right in the thick of the wild card race, as they'll enter tonight's matchup just a half-game out of the third spot.
If the defending NL champions are going to repeat their success this season, they'll need to keep hitting, and tonight's matchup could be an example of how potent their lineup can be.
Philadelphia is currently ninth in the majors in team batting average. While their xwOBACON points to a bit of regression in that category in the future, it won't come tonight when they face Kyle Gibson.
The former Phillie has been knocked around in his first season with Baltimore, as he comes in with a 4.76 ERA.
Fortunately for Philly, he hasn't shown any signs of turning it around.
Gibson ranks in the 19th percentile in hard-hit rate, and that's led to his xBA ranking in the 18th percentile. The Phillies should be able to capitalize on Gibson's struggles tonight, and it helps that they'll have a great scouting report on him.
Orioles vs. Phillies Betting Pick
While all indications point to runs being scored in this matchup, both starters are true question marks.
However, the bullpens are not. Each 'pen has been very solid this season, as the Orioles rank fourth in SIERA and the Phillies aren't far behind in ninth.
So, with my focus on the starters, I'll back the side with the much better matchup. Philly should get things going early against Gibson, and you can back it at a bit of discount.
The Phillies are north of -130 on the F5 line at most sites, but you can take their F5 team total over at -125 on DraftKings. With an F5 total of 5.5, one of these teams will get to three runs by then, and all the signs point toward it being Philly.
