Not only did Texas steal home field with its 3-2 win in Game 1, but the Rangers then went on to take a commanding 2-0 ALDS lead by jumping Grayson Rodriguez and taking Game 2 in an 11-8 slugfest on Sunday. The Orioles are now on the brink of elimination as the series shifts to Arlington for Game 3 on Tuesday night.
Dean Kremer has been the most profitable starting pitcher in the league this season. If you bet the Orioles in each of his starts, you'd have gone 24-8, which would have made a $100 bettor $1,457 this season. That's not necessarily an indicator that Kremer has been great though. The last pitcher to beat that moneyline return over a whole season was journeyman Chris Flexen with Seattle in 2021 and he lost his rotation spot the ensuing year.
Orioles vs. Rangers Game 3 Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+120 | 9 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -166 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-142 | 9 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +138 |
Baltimore Orioles
Kremer's pitching profile is a heavy dose of fastball and/or fastball-type pitches. His primary pitch mix is a four-seam, sinker and cutter, and he'll use a changeup or breaking ball as an occasional throw in. The three types of fastballs make up 75% of his pitches, per Statcast. Kremer's fastball (106 Stuff+) and cutter (104) both grade out as solidly above-average pitches by pitch modeling metrics.
His overall Stuff+ is a 99, and he combines that with above-average locations. Kremer doesn't have overpowering stuff or one dominant pitch, so he relies on inducing weak contact. His 21.7% strikeout rate is below league average, as are his zone contact rate, chase rate and whiff rate.
Given how he profiles and his arsenal's lack of knockout secondary stuff, I do wonder how much the Orioles trust him to go deep in this game. The market doesn't think he'll pitch long, as his outs total is set at 10.5, the lowest of any starting pitcher to this point in the MLB playoffs.
There's major questions about the quality of the Orioles middle relief. The bullpen had just a 21% K rate in September and the Rangers have already seen most of the Orioles bullpen in the first two games. Right now, Baltimore has a league-average bullpen at best, and it'll be needed to get a lot of outs against an elite lineup.
Texas Rangers
Nathan Eovaldi dominated in the second game of the Wild Card series and looked to be considerably healthier than he was at the tail end of the regular season. Eovaldi's fastball velocity ticked up closer to his early season numbers in his final start of the regular season, and that carried over into his dominance of the Rays on Wednesday.
His average fastball velocity in his final regular season start was 94.8 mph, which was more than a full mph harder than in four of his five outings since returning from injury in early September. He managed six strikeouts in his final outing of the regular season, then had eight in 6 2/3 innings against Tampa Bay.
The FanGraphs chart above displays Eovaldi's roller-coaster season. When he was consistently above 95 mph in the first half of the season, he was putting up Cy Young contender numbers. As the velocity started to tail off, his performances dipped, the strikeouts disappeared and home runs became a real problem.
The velocity isn't all the way back, but the trends of the past two starts are quite encouraging. As is the emergence of rookie star Evan Carter, whose elite plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills are giving me 2019 Juan Soto vibes. Soto had constant key hits in the Nationals' run to the World Series title that year.
Carter has four extra-base hits, a homer, six walks and just two strikeouts in his first 17 plate appearances. His emergence alongside a healthy Josh Jung has made the Rangers considerably deeper than they were down the stretch.
Orioles vs. Rangers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Based on prices from last week's wild card game and Tuesday's moneyline, it appears the market is slow to upgrade Eovaldi. Texas has the better lineup, the better starting pitcher and home-field advantage. I know it's a desperation spot for Baltimore facing elimination, but that narrative is driving some Baltimore love in the market that I don't agree with.
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