Orioles vs Rangers Odds & Prediction | Friday MLB Pick (July 19)
Scott Taetsch/Getty Images. Pictured: Corbin Burnes.
Orioles vs Rangers Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-122 | 7.5 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +130 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+102 | 7.5 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -155 |
Tonight, the Baltimore Orioles will face off against the Texas Rangers in Arlington.
In the first series following the All-Star break, we get a rematch of last season’s ALDS (the Rangers swept the one-seed Orioles on their way to a World Series title).
The Orioles (58-38) are trying to repeat their 2023 regular season performance as they currently lead the AL East by one game over the Yankees. They're also just a half-game away from having the best record in the American League.
Texas hasn’t fared as well this season. The reigning champs are 46-50 as it sits five games out of the AL West lead and 7.5 games back from a wild card spot.
Baltimore is currently favored in this matchup at -130, and the game has an over/under of eight runs (-102/-118).
Let’s dive into my preview and best bet for Orioles vs. Rangers on Friday night.
Baltimore Orioles
Corbin Burnes will be the starter for the Orioles tonight. The team’s ace has been great since coming over from Milwaukee via a trade this offseason. The 29-year-old has a 2.43 ERA this season in 118 2/3 innings pitched with an xERA of 3.00 and a SIERA of 3.55.
Burnes has only 110 strikeouts, which ranks in the 57th percentile despite his 78th-percentile whiff rate. In the last two seasons, his strikeout rate has dropped after routinely being toward the top of the league. But with his stuff, I think he could get that back up.
Burnes ranks seventh out of 68 qualified pitchers in Stuff+, 14th in Location+ and first in Pitching+. Not only does Burnes make a lot of batters swing and miss, but he also doesn’t issue a lot of free passes as he has a 5.3% walk rate (87th percentile).
Burnes has been elite in almost every facet this season, and his contact metrics are no different. He has a 93rd-percentile hard-hit rate allowed, 73rd-percentile barrel rate allowed and 74th-percentile average exit velocity allowed.
He also keeps a lot of his batted balls on the ground, ranking in the 80th percentile in ground-ball rate.
Baltimore’s offense is the main reason why it's leading its division right now. The Orioles rank second in wRC+ and wOBA this season.
The Orioles have plenty of power, ranking first in SLG and ISO. Their batted-ball metrics back this up as they're second in hard-hit rate, third in barrel rate and second in exit velocity.
The Orioles are a free-swinging team as they have a walk rate of just 7.1%, which ranks 29th in the majors.
Texas Rangers
Nathan Eovaldi will take the mound for the Rangers tonight. In 94 innings this season, he has a 2.97 ERA and 92 strikeouts but a 3.77 xERA and 3.59 SIERA.
Eovaldi has a 67th-percentile strikeout rate, 70th-percentile whiff rate and 66th-percentile walk rate. He ranks 38th in Stuff+ with a 98 after posting a 101 last season and being between 107 and 109 in the three seasons before.
While Eovaldi’s ERA’s hasn't been impacted yet, his stuff has slipped as he's now 34.
Eovaldi has allowed a 71st-percentile barrel rate this season but is in the 17th percentile in hard-hit rate and 25th percentile in average exit velocity allowed. He still does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground as his ground-ball rate ranks in the 79th percentile.
Texas’ offense has been a point of weakness for it this season. The Rangers rank 22nd in wRC+ and 20th in wOBA. They rank 22nd in SLG and 17th in OBP, but they do walk at an above-average rate while striking out at a below-average clip.
Texas ranks 17th in hard-hit rate, 21st in barrel rate and 20th in exit velocity. However, its offense has improved over the last 30 days as it ranks 10th, 16th and sixth in these three categories, respectively, over this time frame.
This hasn’t affected the Rangers' overall numbers, though, as they're still 22nd in both wOBA and wRC+ over the last month.
Orioles vs. Rangers Pick & Prediction
Burnes is one of the better starters in the league, and I think that he has a solid matchup tonight. Texas’ offense has hit the ball harder as of late, but it's still a well-below-average unit on the season.
I think Burnes will be able to hold the Rangers in check and register a quality start tonight.
Eovaldi has been solid, but this Baltimore offense is among the best in the majors. I believe that Eolvadi’s stuff has been slipping and his hard-hit rate may come back to bite him at some point.
The Orioles certainly have the firepower to do this, and I think that they'll be able to put a few numbers on the board tonight.
Baltimore also has the better bullpen between these two squads, so I feel good about taking it on a full-game line.
My favorite bet for this game is simply Baltimore on the moneyline as it has multiple advantages in this matchup.
Pick: Orioles ML (-130, Play to -135)
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