Orioles vs. Rays Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+158 | 7.5 -115/ -105 | +1.5 -128 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -188 | 7.5 -115/ -105 | -1.5 +108 |
The Rays and Orioles split two low-scoring affairs in the first two games of their pivotal four-game weekend series. On Friday night, it was Zach Eflin outdueling Kyle Bradish in a 3-0 Rays win.
There's another high-quality starting pitching matchup on tap on Saturday afternoon as Orioles top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez goes against established ace Shane McClanahan.
Baltimore called Rodriguez back up to the big leagues on Monday, and he impressed for five innings with some minor changes in his pitch mix and approach to batters.
His season-long numbers to date don't look good at all, but the projection systems and market are well aware of how much high-end talent and potential Rodriguez has.
The question for this matchup is whether or not Rodriguez has figured out the command and home run issues that plagued him in his first MLB stint earlier this year.
Baltimore Orioles
A quick look at the final line wouldn't leave you all that impressed with Rodriguez's outing, but most of the damage came from the bullpen letting inherited runners score on a Chris Taylor grand slam in the sixth inning.
His command might not be good enough at the moment to consistently go deep into games, but Rodriguez was able to frequently get ahead of an elite Dodgers lineup.
I was especially encouraged by his first-pitch strike rate and overall zone rate, which were considerably better than his starts before his demotion in the spring.
Perhaps most importantly, it also seems that Rodriguez fixed whatever issues he had in the past with pitch tipping. In multiple starts this season, the opponent seemed to have figured something out with Rodriguez. It's one of the only ways to explain a HR/9 rate as high as the one Rodriguez had.
There's never been any question about how good his stuff is — he's had four pitches graded out as above average by Stuff+ this year — and that gives him elite-level upside immediately.
Tampa Bay Rays
There were questions about McClanahan coming off the injured list, but his spike in fastball velocity and improved performance should put to rest any concerns about the Tampa Bay ace.
McClanahan sat below 96 mph in two June starts prior to the All-Star break, but his velocity was 97.4 mph in a start against the Rangers on Monday night. That's his second-highest mark of the season, behind only a May start against the Orioles when he tossed six scoreless and struck out seven.
McClanahan's stuff was really sharp on Monday, as he generated the third-highest chase rate of the season, an elite 15.9% swinging strike rate and solid whiffs in the zone against one of the league's best lineups in Texas.
There are some questions about the Rays' offense coming to the forefront, though. The season-long metrics will tell you that Tampa Bay is one of the three or four best offenses in MLB, but the Rays have a 99 wRC+ since June began.
There's been some cooling off of the top hitters in the lineup, and the depth platoon that the Rays manage as well as anyone hasn't produced to the same level.
For the rest of the season, the Rays project closer to just above average, and there's more room to fall from the top-five mark the offense has produced to date.
Orioles vs. Rays Betting Pick
For the third consecutive game in this series, I'm betting the under, as McClanahan and Rodriguez might be the best pitching matchup of the entire series.
As good as Bradish and Eflin were on Friday, McClanahan and Rodriguez have even higher ceilings because of their swing-and-miss stuff.
I don't put much stock at all into Rodriguez's numbers in MLB this year, especially since he was tipping.
The total for this game should be below 7.5, especially with both Yennier Canó and Felix Bautista rested behind Rodriguez.
Baltimore's middle relief remains a bit shaky — innings six and seven could be tricky — but the backend Orioles relief dominance should keep this game tight throughout and low-scoring.
I'd bet under 7.5 at -105 or better, or bet under 8 at -118 or better.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-105 or Better) |
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