Orioles vs. Rays Odds
| Orioles Odds | +145 |
| Rays Odds | -175 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 (-110/-110) |
| Time | 3:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via BetMGM, updated Friday morning. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
We have an AL East matchup on Friday as the Baltimore Orioles travel to Tampa Bay to take on the Rays. This matchup is the season opener for both teams and the projected starting pitcher battle will be between John Means and Shane McClanahan.
These two pitchers faced each other once last season and the Rays won, 9-3. Will we see another high-scoring affair, or will we see a pitching duel this time around?
Orioles' Means Has Rough Matchup
The left-handed Means saw the Rays five times last season. Over those five starts, Means produced a troubling 5.40 ERA.
The total has reached at least eight runs in four of those five games. The metrics suggest that the current Rays lineup will continue to find success against Means.
Tampa Bay's current lineup has a career .312 AVG and .377 wOBA against Means. In his two road starts at Tropicana Field last season, Means possessed a brutal 9.00 ERA.
While Means started last season strong, he started to falter after the All-Star break as he posted a 4.88 ERA over his 14 appearances in the second half of 2021. While this next figure could be more coincidental, It is worth noting that Means' ERA dipped to 4.20 in 11 day-time starts last season.
Once we get to the later innings in this contest, Baltimore's bullpen could help push the total over 7.5 as its relief pitching ranked dead-last in the league last season with a 5.70 ERA. Opposing batters hit for a .260 average against Baltimore's bullpen last season, the second-highest mark in baseball.
Baltimore's lineup is slated to go up against the lefty McClanahan. Last season against left-handers, Baltimore ranked eighth in the league in batting average, eighth in slugging percentage, and 11th in OPS.
Rays' McClanahan Not as Good at Home
McClanahan had four starts against Baltimore last season and the total went over 7.5 in all four of those games.
At Tropicana Field, McClanahan's ERA was worse than on the road as it jumped up to 3.50. While McClanahan fared relatively well against Baltimore last year, his advanced metrics suggest he is due for regression against this lineup.
Baltimore's lineup possessed a .301 xAVG and .359 xwOBA against McClanahan, despite posting a .263 AVG and .292 wOBA overall last season. Even if McClanahan does not have a great outing, Tampa Bay's lineup should give McClanahan plenty of run support going against Means.
Against left-handers last season, the Rays ranked 13th in the league in slugging percentage, 13th in OPS and seventh in wRC+. They draw a good matchup against Means, a pitcher who this lineup had plenty of success against last season.
Orioles-Rays Pick
I like this matchup to continue its trend from last season and go over the total. This is a really tough matchup for Means and Tampa Bay could chase him off the mound early.
If the Rays reach the Orioles' bullpen early, I am even more confident in this game going over the total. The Orioles should also be able to drive in some runs, especially given their expected metrics against McClanahan last season.
Both of these lineups hit left-handers well last season, and the weather will obviously not impact this game as they are playing in a dome. I would not play this over if the total jumps to 8 by first pitch.
Pick: Orioles/Rays Over 7.5 (-110) | Play up to (-125)
