Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds
| Orioles Odds | +150 |
| Red Sox Odds | -170 |
| Over/Under | 10 (-105 / -115) |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV+ |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
We have the first matchup of a five-game AL East series as the Boston Red Sox host the Baltimore Orioles. The last time these two teams squared off, they combined for 16 total runs.
Will we get another high-scoring affair, or can the pitching limit the runs this time around?
Bradish Takes Mound for Orioles
The Orioles travel to Boston after going 1-2 in a three-game series against the Yankees. Two of those three games went over this total, and I expect this game to do the same.
Entering this series, the over is 6-3-1 over the Orioles' last 10 games (67%). With right-hander Kyle Bradish expected to take the mound for Baltimore, I like this trend to continue.
Through five starts this season, Bradish is 1-3 with a 5.74 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Based on his metrics, we shouldn't expect any positive regression from Bradish, as he possesses a .352 xwOBA, .278 xBA and .486 xSLG.
Bradish will also be battling the elements in this game, as the wind will play a major factor regarding the total. At the time of writing, the forecast calls for 14-16 MPH winds blowing directly out to left-center field.
Red Sox Offense On a Roll
The Boston Red Sox return home after going 2-1 in a three-game series against the White Sox. Two of those three games went over this total, as the Red Sox scored 16 runs by themselves in both of those outings.
Boston's offense has been one of the hottest in the league, which has resulted in the over hitting at a solid clip recently. Over the Sox's last 10 games, the over is 7-2-1 (78%).
I expect Boston's offense to continue to roll as they go against the right-hander Bradish. Against right-handed pitchers this season, the Red Sox rank seventh in the league in BA, fifth in SLG, 10th in OPS and 10th in wOBA. Over their 23 career plate appearances against Bradish, this current Red Sox lineup boasts a .311 xBA, .577 xSLG and .385 xwOBA.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox could surrender some runs themselves, as right-hander Garrett Whitlock is projected to take the mound.
Whitlock got rocked in his last outing, giving up five runs on 10 hits through three innings against the Mariners. The former reliever has allowed at least two runs in four straight starts, and the over is 3-0-1 during that stretch.
Orioles-Red Sox Pick
As mentioned, the wind is a big factor and could help push this game over the total. Obviously, this is not private information, and it has been baked into the total.
That being said, the over has been a good trend for both teams recently, and both starting pitchers enter nice fade candidates.
Additionally, the Red Sox offense has been on a tear, and I'm comfortable backing them to generate a ton of runs once again.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-115 | Play to -125)
