One of the surprise playoff teams in the American League, the Kansas City Royals, take on a Baltimore Orioles team that was merely average over the second half of the MLB season.
The MLB playoffs are a different beast, however, and I believe the Orioles could begin this AL Wild Card Series Game 1 on winning note. Find my Orioles vs Royals MLB parlay and picks for Game 1 on Tuesday, October 1, below.
Orioles vs Royals MLB Parlay Picks — AL Wild Card Game 1
- Orioles Moneyline (-162)
- Adley Rutschman to record a hit (-165)
- Corbin Burnes 6+ strikeouts alt line (+100)
Parlay Odds: +405 (DraftKings)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Orioles Moneyline (-162)
Orioles vs Royals, 4:08 p.m. ET
Following a July and August in which Corbin Burnes yielded mediocre results, he finished off the season on in strong form. He posted a 2.21 ERA over his final seven starts with a 1.06 WHIP. Burnes didn’t allow more than two runs in any of his final six starts, which helped his season ERA settle at 2.92.
I trust Burnes much more than Royals hurler Cole Ragans in this spot. Ragans has struggled with control lately, walking three-plus hitters in five of his last seven outings. The leash is much shorter in the postseason, so Ragans' day could be brief if he can’t throw consistent strikes.
September has been a month of resurgence for the Orioles offense. After ranking near the middle of pack in wRC+ in August, Baltimore snuck in at seventh with a 108 wRC+ in September. Two of the biggest difference-makers are two players who love hitting southpaws — Emmanuel Rivera and Ryan Mountcastle.
Only a few months ago Mountcastle made the All-Star team, but injuries lead to some spotty play before landing on the IL. He posted a 124 wRC+ while hitting over .360, despite the power lagging behind.
Rivera was claimed from waivers from the lowly Marlins, and now he's likely a better everyday option than top-tier prospect Jackson Holliday. The journeyman infielder posted the fourth-best wRC+ in Baltimore's lineup in September and hit three homers. He's a sneaky name to watch here.
Adley Rutschman to Record a Hit (-165)
Orioles vs Royals, 4:08 p.m. ET
You’re probably thinking, "Hasn’t Adley Rutschman been a complete disaster since the All-Star break? And you probably think I'm nuts for adding a prop for a struggling hitter to the SGP.
Yep. You’re not wrong. I’m still backing him to record a hit in a favorable matchup.
Although Rutschman is hitting .204 with a well-below league average wRC+ in the last month, he dominates southpaws.
Rutschman hit .302 with a .902 OPS compared to .219 and .602 against right-handed pitchers. Surprisingly, he hit 12 of his 19 homers against right-handed pitchers.
The starting catcher for the AL in the All-Star Game didn't just forget how to hit. While he's regularly been much worse against right-handed pitching, he can take advantage in this favorable matchup.
All Rutschman needs is a single hit. That's something he did in five of the final seven regular-season games he played.
Corbin Burnes 6+ Strikeouts (+100)
Orioles vs Royals, 4:08 p.m. ET
The biggest difference for Burnes in his last three outings is an increase in strikeouts — he’s struck out at least seven in three straight games.
Strikeouts have been a bit of a thorn in the Royals' side over the last month. They finished September with a rough 24% K rate.
I’m going a little crazy here and picking an alt strikeout total rather than the heavily juiced -145 on over 4.5 Ks. If this game goes as I expect, Burnes can reach the sixth or seventh inning, which should come with enough opportunity to secure this leg.
Burnes' strikeout rate plummeted in potentially his lone year in Baltimore. He posted a 9.29 K/9 in his farewell year in Milwaukee, and it's 8.38 this year. But he had a three year stretch of posting a 10.8 K/9 or better from 2020-22 before his strikeout rate began declining in 2023.
I'm hopeful his recent stretch is an indicator that the former Cy Young winner is rediscovering his strikeout prowess.
