It's Game 2 of the AL Wild Card Game in Baltimore, Maryland, as the Kansas City Royals look to close out the series on Wednesday afternoon. The Baltimore Orioles have lost nine consecutive playoff games since 2014.
In Game 1, Royals ace Cole Ragans was lights out through 6 innings and exited the game after just 80 pitches due to cramping in his calf. The Royals pen did a superb job to secure the victory, and now the Orioles have their backs up against the wall.
The O's offense was prolific all season long, but they were shut out in Game 1. They left many runners on base and failed to come up with a big hit late in the game.
Today, it'll be Seth Lugo on the mound for the Royals and trade deadline acquisition Zach Eflin will oppose him. Oddsmakers have the O's as -160 favorites, and the total is set at 7.5.
Yesterday, we hit both SGPs for the Tigers/Astros and Braves/Padres Game 1s, so let's carry that momentum into today. I built a 4-leg SGP that pays out 7-1 on your investment.
John Feltman's Orioles vs Royals MLB Picks, Parlay — Wild Card Game 2
- Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (-130)
- Jordan Westburg Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
- Zach Eflin Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130)
- Over 7.5 (-115)
Parlay Odds: +383 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Bobby Witt Jr. provided the lone RBI of the game yesterday, chipping in a clutch RBI knock to give the Royals the lead. Witt Jr. was 1-4 yesterday with a CS.
There is no questioning that he would be the frontrunner for the AL MVP after a terrific 2024 season if it were not for Aaron Judge. Today, I love the matchup for Witt Jr. against Zach Eflin.
He is 3-6 lifetime against Eflin in his career, and Eflin is on the decline as a pitcher. He's allowed more contact in 2024 compared to years past, and it is an excellent spot for Bobby to take advantage of.
Eflin throws a fastball, cutter, and curveball mix for over 75% of his pitch mix. Witt Jr. has an xBA above .300 against all those pitches, setting himself up for a prime afternoon at the plate. He might start the party early, so do not be surprised to see him make a big splash in the first inning.
Westburg racked up a base hit yesterday, but we are getting tremendous value on this prop today. Westburg only has two career at-bats against Lugo, but those two hits are an HR and a triple.
Lugo overperformed in 2024, and we will touch on that in another prop breakdown below. Westburg was a far better hitter at Camden Yards, hitting .303 at home throughout the regular season.
Oddly enough, Westburg did most of his damage against right-handed pitching, and he only hit .230 against lefties. He struggled in September, batting .192, but his metrics suggest he is due for favorable fortune in the postseason and beyond.
I love Westburg tonight to rack up at least one extra-base hit. He hits the ball far too complex to stay calm for an extended period.
Eflin was a disappointment for the O's once he was acquired at the deadline. Despite his high chase rate, he struggles to generate whiffs and strikeouts.
His strikeout rate is 19.6%, which ranks below the 25th percentile amongst all MLB pitchers. It is also an extremely tough matchup for Eflin, as the Royals offense ranks 3rd in strikeouts per game.
They are a tough team to punch out, even more so against a pitcher that does not generate a high percentage of whiffs. It seems like a low strikeout total for people to grab, but I am not falling for the bait, and I think Eflin could easily struggle this afternoon.
I spoke about Eflin's struggles above, but it is also a tough matchup for Seth Lugo. After both teams combined for 1-run, this is a golden opportunity to buy low on both offenses.
Lugo enters the start after posting a respectable stat line in 2024, but his underlying metrics are concerning. He ranks below the 25th percentile in whiff rate and fastball velo.
He also ranks below the 50th percentile in hard-hit rate and barrel rate. To make matters worse, the O's are batting .375 over 32 at-bats in their career against Lugo.
It is a disastrous matchup for Lugo, and I expect him to struggle early. The Royals are also batting .292 lifetime against Eflin, so they should get their fair chances of scoring opportunities early on.
Both offenses are too good to be contained two days in a row. Expect Lugo and Eflin to struggle to correlate to a bunch of scoring early.
