Orioles vs. White Sox Odds
| Orioles Odds | +135 |
| White Sox Odds | -160 |
| Over/Under | 9 (-105/-115) |
| Time | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
The White Sox were expected to run away with the AL Central division and began the season as the betting favorite. Now as we turn to summer, they find themselves with a losing record and sitting in third place.
Baltimore was expected to finish last in the AL East and that is right where the Orioles find themselves. However, after going 52-110 last season, they are on pace for 72 wins and have been pretty feisty lately.
Baltimore Orioles: Mountcastle, Rutschman Heating Up
The Orioles have a pitching staff full of young arms and 26-year-old Dean Kremer will make his fourth start of the season Thursday. Kremer was acquired as part of the trade from the Dodgers for Manny Machado in 2018 and has been up and down from Triple-A over the past three years.
In 20 career starts, Kremer has a 6.06 ERA, but in three starts this year he has an ERA of 2.35. He has gotten better in each start this season and tossed six scoreless innings against the Rays in his last outing. Kremer throws his fastball over 51% of the time and while it has allowed a .183 wOBA, the .309 xwOBA is a bit concerning.
Baltimore’s offense has been very mediocre this season and ranks just 26th in wOBA and wRC+. However, some of that can be attributed to the ridiculous new stadium changes at Camden Yards. On the road this year, the Orioles have 97 wRC+, 17th in baseball. Compare that to their 85 wRC+ at home.
Two Orioles players have been really heating up recently. Ryan Mountcastle has a .423 wOBA and a 180 wRC+ with four home runs over the past 12 games. But more importantly, top prospect Adley Rutschman has a .382 wOBA and a 152 wRC+ over past two weeks.
Chicago White Sox: Is Regression Coming for Cueto?
We aren’t actually buying that Johnny Cueto is somehow good again, are we? The 36-year-old is somehow sporting a 2.95 ERA through seven games and is coming off seven shutout innings in a dominant win over the Astros.
The negative regression has to be coming though. Sure, his 3.25 xERA is still pretty good. But Cueto hasn’t posted an ERA under 4.00 since 2018. He ranks in the bottom 30% of the league in strikeout percentage and the bottom five percent in Whiff rate. He sits in the bottom 21% in average exit velocity and gives up a lot of hard contact.
The league’s most disappointing offense looks like it has finally turned the corner. Over the season as a whole, Chicago ranks below average in most offensive stats, but the White Sox rank third in wOBA and second in wRC+ over the past two weeks.
With all the big names on this roster, it is 24-year-old Andrew Vaughn who has led the way. The right fielder is hitting .376 over the past 30 days and has a .418 wOBA over the past two weeks.
Orioles-White Sox Pick
The White Sox offense finally appears to be rounding into form and is playing like one of the best teams in the league over the past few weeks. Andrew Vaughn and Luis Robert are red hot.
Despite his solid recent form, Dean Kremer is still an experienced pitcher and likely has negative regression coming his way. An upward trending Chicago lineup is certainly in good position to bring it.
Speaking of negative regression, Johnny Cueto can’t possibly keep this up. He began the year in the minors and is giving up a ton of hard contact.
Baltimore’s biggest weakness is that it has the fifth highest strikeout rate in the league. Well Cueto rarely strikes anybody out (6.96 K/9 rate) and has one of the lowest Whiff rates in the league.
Behind these two starting pitchers are two bullpen units that rank 23rd and 24th in reliever ERA over the past month.
Over the past 10 games, these teams are a combined 15-5 with two offenses rounding into form and two pitchers due for negative regression. I’ll back over 9 at -105, play to -110.
Pick: Over 9 (-105)
