The top two teams in the AL East battle it out with both having their sights aimed on the division crown.
The Orioles took game one of the series and hope to continue their good fortune on Wednesday in the Bronx.
First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET with two crafty starters on the hill. Instead of just one pick for this Orioles vs Yankees betting preview, I've cooked up a three-leg parlay for tonight.
Let's get into Orioles vs. Yankees MLB parlay picks for Wednesday, September 25.
Sean Paul's Orioles vs Yankees MLB Parlay for 9/25
- Yankees ML -155
- Nestor Cortes Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)
- Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 Total Bases (+120)
Parlay Odds: +460 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Yankees ML -155
On Tuesday, all the Yankees needed was a single win to clinch the AL East title, but instead, they lost to the Orioles by two in the series opener.
I think bottles will pop in the Yankees' clubhouse on Wednesday, though.
Taking the mound in the Bronx is the very crafty left-hander Nestor Cortes. Cortes appears to be very much a creature of habit as he's really good at Yankee Stadium (3.11 ERA in 15 starts) and in night games (2.89 ERA in 18 starts).
In contrast, Cortes has a 5.14 ERA in 13-day game outings and a 4.46 ERA in road games. Thankfully for Cortes, this is a night game in New York.
The Yankees' offense ranks 13th in the MLB with a 98 wRC+ in September, well below their season average. It's their worst hitting month, largely due to a pretty pedestrian 20 homers.
We know just how effective this Yankees offense can be, but it needs Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Austin Wells to start hitting again. Teams will return to the plan of walking Aaron Judge and Juan Soto if their protectors behind them can't hit.
Zach Eflin will take the ball for Baltimore. While he's been nothing short of terrific, the Yankees tagged him for four runs in five innings in his last start against them in July.
The difference for Eflin? He walked a season-high four batters. That could happen again as New York is the most patient offense in baseball with an 11% walk rate in September.
Nestor Cortes Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)
The Yankees tested Cortes in the bullpen against the Cubs three weeks ago instead of letting him start. Since then, Cortes turned in a pair of dominant outings against the Mariners and Red Sox as he pitched 11 innings and punched out 14 batters.
That adds onto Cortes' dominant past month. The southpaw boasts a 1.68 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP in 40 innings over his past seven outings. He also has 38 strikeouts in that span.
With Cortes on fire and the Orioles' offensive struggles persisting, this feels like an ideal spot to target the over on Cortes' strikeouts.
I'm banking on the recent version of Cortes being a more accurate version of his skill level than his rough stretch that sent him to the bullpen. He'll look to continue the positive momentum in arguably the Yankees' most important game this year.
Baltimore has punched out 24.2% of the time in September, putting it 13th in the MLB.
With a lefty on the hill, it'll likely lead to starts from Emmanuel Rivera and Austin Slater, which is awesome news for the over on Cortes' strikeouts. Those two are very strikeout-prone, punching out 25% of the time this month.
Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 Total Bases (+120)
Despite how good a pitcher or hitter is, they aren't immune to an occasional poor matchup.
That's the case here for Gunnar Henderson, who faces his kryptonite in Cortes.
It's not surprising someone like Cortes is tough on an aggressive swinger like Henderson, since the Yankee pitcher is always willing to mess with a hitter's timing with small tweaks in his wind up.
In Henderson's career, he's 1-for-10 (two walks) in 12 plate appearances against Cortes with six strikeouts. He's recorded a single total base in his career matchups against Cortes, and I don't see him expanding on that total.
The Yankees won't let Henderson beat them, similar to how pitchers approach Judge. If Cortes gets in a deep hole, then he'll probably be careful with the Orioles' star shortstop. Henderson won't see many pitches to hit until Adley Rutschman and others start contributing.
I'll grab the plus money on Henderson to not reach base via a hit.
