Orioles vs Yankees Prediction Saturday | MLB Odds & Picks
| Baltimore Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +143 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -150 |
| New York Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +126 |
Let's dive into Saturday's MLB odds and get into our Orioles vs Yankees prediction in our Saturday MLB betting preview for July 13.
Orioles vs Yankees odds for Saturday have the Orioles as -150 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8.5 (-115o / -105u) for the matchup at Camden Yards. For my Orioles vs Yankees prediction, I'll be betting the moneyline.
The starting pitching for matchup for Saturday is a good one as right-hander Luis Gil takes the mound for New York, while Baltimore hands the ball to right-hander Grayson Rodriguez.
How will the second game of this AL East tilt play out after a testy series opener? Find out below.
Baltimore Orioles
While Rodriguez is an incredibly talented pitcher, there is just no arguing that he Gil is the superior option in this matchup. Rodriguez trails Gil in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate.
Following the right-hander is a bullpen that's nothing too crazy to worry about. Baltimore's relief staff hovers around the league average this season in ERA.
On the other hand, the Orioles' lineup clearly is a cause for concern when fading this team. However, they possess a mere .239 xBA, .331 xSLG and .287 xwOBA through 52 combined career plate appearances against Gil.
New York Yankees
Gil is firmly in the mix for AL Rookie of the Year, and for good reason. The right-hander is 9-5 through 18 starts this season with a commanding 3.27 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally strong as Gil ranks in the 71st percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate. Following Gil is a New York bullpen that ranks eighth in ERA, which is six spots higher than Baltimore's.
This pitching staff should also receive plenty of run support as the Yankees rank in the top five of the league in runs scored per game, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs. That success is likely to continue against Rodriguez, a pitcher whom this current lineup boasts a .252 xBA, .432 xSLG and .333 xwOBA against through 38 combined career plate appearances.
Orioles vs. Yankees
Betting Pick & Prediction
In my estimation, the only reason that Baltimore is -142 on the moneyline is because of home field. However, the Orioles' sub-.600 home win percentage falls short of New York's approximate .608 home win percentage.
So, if that advantage is nullified, then how can you not like the Yankees at +120 in this spot? First, they boast the pitching advantage.
Gil outranks Rodriguez in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate while New York's bullpen also outranks Baltimore's in ERA. That just leaves the hitting, which is a wash as both teams are tied for first in runs scored per game this season.
Considering these variables, it is worth taking a shot on the road underdog at +120.
