Saturday's Padres vs Raysprediction shows clear moneyline value in one of Saturday's most entertaining matchups.
We have an MLB moneyline model with a 61% win-rate. It only picks AL vs. NL games — just like Padres vs. Rays.
That's exactly why there's value. If we regress the win rate to, say, a 60% implied probability, that equates to a moneyline price around -150.
Saturday's Padres vs. Rays odds list San Diego at -102 and Tampa Bay at -120. More or less, one of those moneyline sides is being undervalued.
There's a strategic way to go about this. After laying the framework, let's transition to the side that has usually been the right MLB prediction.
Padres vs Rays Prediction & Moneyline Pick for Saturday
The Padres are red-hot behind NL Rookie of the Year favorite Jackson Merrill. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is just fighting to get above .500.
Due to both teams' records and situation, our
