Padres vs Angels Predictions | MLB Odds & Picks (6/5)
Photo by Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images. Pictured: Luis Arraez (Padres)
Padres vs Angels Predictions | MLB Odds & Picks
| San Diego Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-180 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -1.5 -105 |
| Los Angeles Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+150 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +1.5 -115 |
The Padres will look to snap their three-game losing skid as heavy favorites in Wednesday's series finale versus the Angels at Angel Stadium.
Dylan Cease will start for the Padres, looking to better his 3.42 ERA and collect his sixth win of the season. Meanwhile, Jose Soriano will start for the Angels and will be looking to bounce back after allowing eight earned runs over his last two outings.
Padres vs Angels odds for Wednesday have the Padres listed as -180 moneyline favorites, with an over/under of 7.5 (-115o /-105u). For my Padres vs Angels predictions, I will be targeting two plus-money player props for key Padres players Luis Arraez and Jackson Merrill.
San Diego Padres
The Padres' offense has hit a wall during this losing streak, as they've generated just six combined runs. Looking at a more meaningful sample of play, though, and the Padres' offense has been excellent of late and should be particularly well situated to bounce back against Soriano.
The Padres own a third-best offensive wRC+ of 121 over the last 30 days with an OPS of .747. They hold the lowest strikeout rate in the league during that span at just 17.6% and the fifth-lowest soft-contact rate at 14.4%.
Luis Arraez has been in incredible form since arriving in San Diego and has been one key to those excellent splits. In 121 at-bats with the Padres, Arraez has hit .377 with an .847 OPS. He's struck out just 4% of the time over the last month and has hit to a xBA of .338.
He's batted .377 versus right-handed pitching over the entirety of the season with a slug-rate of .473.
Jackson Merrill has slugged only .208 over the last two weeks, which might suggest opposing pitchers are figuring the highly-touted rookie out to some extent.
However, he owns an xBA of .323 over his last 35 at-bats and has struck out just 11% of the time. Over the last month, Merrill has hit to a .314 xBA. He also owns a .734 OPS versus RHP this season.
Cease's underlying profile runs in line with his strong 3.42 ERA. He holds a 3.22 xERA and an xFIP of 3.25. His stuff is actually grading out better than last season, as he holds a 121 Stuff+ rating compared to last season's 115.
Los Angeles Angels
Soriano has been an effective ground-ball pitcher in the early going of this season and could prove to be a solid find for an Angels organization in dire need of pitching. He owns a 3.98 xERA and a 3.85 xFIP in 2024.
Being converted back into a starter does seem reasonable for Soriano, who owns a 104 Stuff+ rating on his five-pitch mix this season.
Soriano has been hard-hit 50% of the time by left-handed batters and has allowed an xFIP of 4.23.
He's also been considerably less effective at home so far in 2024, as he owns an ERA of 6.75 in 20 innings at Angel Stadium.
The Angels have the second-worst offense in the league versus right-handed pitching over the last 30 days, with a wRC+ of only 78.
Padres vs. Angels
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Padres have a great opportunity to snap their three-game losing skid here and avoid a series sweep.
Cease offers a clear edge over Soriano, and the Padres' offense is far superior to Angels'.
Some of the Angels' key high leverage relievers are also fairly taxed right now, which makes the pitching disparity a touch wider.
At -160, my lean on a side would certainly be with the Padres, but I don't quite see value backing them at such a juiced number.
Instead, there are two Padres batters who own excellent splits relative to a matchup versus Soriano. Arraez is priced at +100 to record over 1.5 total bases and Merrill is priced at +135 to record over 1.5 total bases. Both are worthy of a half-unit bet.
Pick: Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Total Bases +135 (bet365, Play to +130) | Luis Arraez Over 1.5 Total Bases +100 (DraftKings, Play to -105)
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