Padres vs. Braves Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+134 | 8.5 -102 / -120 | +1.5 -154 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-158 | 8.5 -102 / -120 | -1.5 +128 |
Two favorites to claim the NL pennant will begin an intriguing four-game set Thursday as the Atlanta Braves host the San Diego Padres at Truist Park.
The Padres may not be fairly heavy underdogs too often with Blake Snell on the mound, but are Thursday in a matchup against Spencer Strider and a red-hot Braves team.
San Diego Padres
Snell will look to put a nightmare Opening Day start behind him and display the kind of form offered throughout the final two-thirds of last season's campaign.
Blow-up days have always been a downside to Snell's game and are often due to struggles with command, but he still projects to be a top 20-40 starter in baseball this season.
Snell pitched to an ERA of 3.38 and an xERA of 3.19 in 128 innings in 2022. It was the third straight season where it took a few months to fully lock in to top form, but that certainly is not a trend to count on as a rule.
The major projections models are a little all over the place with Snell entering this season. THEBAT is projecting some struggles with an ERA of 4.14 and is at the low end, while Steamer's 3.36 is the most favorable to Snell.
Snell's velocity sat slightly above last season's average in his first outing, and his spin-rates were up slightly as well. His stuff rated out quite well, and it was lots of soft contact which was his undoing.
Atlanta Braves
The Braves boasted one of the most potent offenses in the league against left-handed pitching last season with a 118 wRC+ and .341 wOBA.
Seeing as Alex Anthopoulos has wisely locked up all the most crucial pieces, the Braves project to hold similarly lethal splits versus lefties this season, led by a lethal top of the order.
Austin Riley had an .OPS of 1.084 versus lefties last season, which was the third best mark in the league.
His 23 barrelled balls versus lefties was the second highest mark in the league.
Ronald Acuna Jr's 55% hard-hit rate versus LHP since 2020 is the third highest mark in the league.
Padres vs. Braves Betting Pick
The top of Atlanta's order makes for a very tough matchup for Snell, and should be able to remain hot in this matchup.
Snell had some tough luck his first time out and his stuff even rated better than usual, and will surely continue to stabilize as the season wears along.
My thoughts here are not necessarily that Snell is a fade candidate this season, but more so these are great prices for elite batters versus lefties.
Riley was among the most potent bats in the league last season versus lefties, and offers a number of very interesting splits which suggest he should find success tonight.
He's priced at +140 to record over 1.5 total bases, which is a good price considering the matchup, especially as his ABs versus Snell should be somewhat boom or bust on average.
Riley at +165 to record an RBI is another number I like in this matchup, considering he should remain third in the order and have good opportunities with Ronald Acuna Jr. and Matt Olson likely to set the table.
Waiting for official lineup confirmations makes sense as I do not believe either of these numbers will move throughout the day, and splitting a unit on these two props is my favorite play if Atlanta deploys it's standard lineup against left-handed pitching.
There are some scattered storms on the horizon and we could potentially see a delay, but hitting conditions project to be reasonable with winds blowing out slightly to left field.
