The 2024 MLB regular season is over. It's time to turn our attention to the 2024 MLB playoffs and Padres vs Braves — the odds to win the series, and more lines for the Wild Card Round.
The Padres opened as -165 favorites to win their 2024 MLB playoffs Wild Card Round Series, with the Braves listed as +135 underdogs to win the series.
Padres vs. Braves Series Odds for Wild Card Round in MLB Playoffs
| Padres | Braves | |
|---|---|---|
| Series Winner | -165 | +135 |
| Win in 2 | TBD | TBD |
| Win in 3 | TBD | TBD |
Odds via DraftKings as of Monday Sept. 30.
Padres vs. Braves Schedule
- Game 1: Tuesday, October 1, 8:38 p.m. ET, ESPN
- Game 2: Wednesday, October 2, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2
- Game 3: Thursday, October 3, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN (if necessary)
Padres Playoff Preview
Padres odds & ranks
- World Series Odds: +1200
- Pennant Odds: +550
- Regular Season Record: 93-69
- Team wRC+: 111 (6th)
- Starting pitching xFIP: 3.99 (13th)
- Bullpen xFIP: 3.70 (3rd)
Offense
The Padres have one of the most dangerous offenses in MLB. You don’t even have to look that hard at advanced metrics to see why – they pass the eye test on name brand alone: Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Luis Arraez, Jackson Merrill and Jurickson Profar were flat-out studs this season.
Then you look under the hood and see this group just might have the perfect mix for postseason success.
They rank third in xWOBA among playoff teams and while they don’t draw walks at the highest rate, they counter that by having the lowest strikeout percentage.
Rotation
The Padres have an embarrassment of riches in the starting pitcher department. They go four deep with Dylan Cease, Michael King, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove.
Our Sean Zerillo is quite bullish on San Diego’s group:
I'd rate the Padres — whose starting pitchers (101 Pitching+) just missed the cutoff for the above filters — as the second-best overall staff. Their rotation would qualify for the same filters as Philadelphia's pitchers if you isolated since Darvish and Musgrove returned to the rotation (103 Pitching+ in September).
Bullpen
Robert Suarez, a first-time All-Star who was nails for most of the regular season, made Padres fans sweat quite a bit in the second half as he blew saves left and right.
The good news is that the Padres made a point of fortifying their 'pen at the trade deadline, acquiring Jason Adams and Tanner Scott.
Like the Friars’ starting rotation, Zerillo again has strong praise for this group:
Moreover, since adding Adam and Scott at the trade deadline, the Padres bullpen has arguably been the best individual position group in baseball (3.34 xFIP, 19.8% K-BB%, 3.42 botERA, 122 Stuff+, 106 Pitching+).
Braves Playoff Preview
Braves odds & ranks
- World Series Odds: +1600
- Pennant Odds: +750
- Regular Season Record: 89-73
- Team wRC+: 100 (17th)
- Starting pitching xFIP: 3.47 (1st)
- Bullpen xFIP: 3.55 (1st)
Offense
The Braves may not have Ronald Acuna Jr. or Austin Riley, but they can still line up a formidable power-speed group featuring Michael Harris Jr., Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna and Jorge Soler.
The bad news for this group is that they whiff quite a bit (24.1%) — only the Tigers are worse among postseason teams.
Rotation
The Braves’ rotation is in flux entering their Wild Card Series against the Padres.
Ace and likely NL Cy Young Award winner Chris Sale was scratched from his Monday start out of nowhere with back spasms. MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reported that Sale first felt discomfort during his start against the Reds on Sept. 19, when he experienced a severe velocity dip.
If there’s a silver lining, it’s unlikely Sale would’ve been available for this Padres series if he got the ball on Monday.
Beyond Sale, the Braves do have Max Fried and Reynaldo Lopez, though the former experienced a bit of a down year by his standards while Lopez is recently fresh off the injured list.
Spencer Schwellenbach could be available in some fashion in a potential third game after pitching on Monday against the Mets.
Bullpen
You wouldn’t have guessed it while watching Game 1 against the Mets on Monday, but Atlanta’s bullpen is among the best in the league.
The Braves were first in reliever xFIP and Pitching+, second in strikeout rate and walk rate and third in ERA.
Beyond standout closer Raisel Iglesias, Atlanta can mix and match with the likes of Aaron Bummer, Dylan Lee, Joe Jimenez and Jesse Chavez.
