Padres vs. Brewers Odds
| Padres Odds | -110 |
| Brewers Odds | -110 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Time | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
The San Diego Padres will continue their tour of the NL Central as they head to Milwaukee and look to bounce back following a road sweep against the Cardinals. The Padres are just 4-6 in their last 10 games, including losing two out of three at home to the Brewers to begin last week.
For the Brew Crew, they have won six of their last 10 games and sit atop the NL Central standings. Milwaukee is looking to become the first team to win back-to-back NL Central division titles since the 2016-2017 Cubs.
For some reason, Milwaukee has had a lot of success over San Diego over the last couple years. Since 2015, the Brewers are 27-17 against the Padres, and they are 7-3 over the last two years.
Will the Padres Bats Step Up Around Machado?
Right before the start of the season, Padres manger Bob Melvin was reunited with Sean Manaea (LHP) when he was traded to San Diego from Oakland on April 3. There have been mixed results for Manaea so far in America’s Finest City. He has gone 2-3 with a 4.02 ERA but a slightly better 3.58 xERA and xFIP.
The good thing about Manaea is that he goes late into games and eats innings. He has lasted at least six innings in eight of his nine starts this season. He has been a bit shaky as of late though, allowing at least three runs in each of his last six starts.
San Diego has had to get by all season without superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. However, Manny Machado has sure stepped up to help pull the Padres along. The five-time All-Star leads the MLB in WAR so far this season and is batting .344 with a .424 wOBA and 177 wRC+.
That Slam Diego nickname has not really been appropriate this season as the Padres have just 37 home runs, 26th in the league. Outside of Machado and Eric Hosmer, the Padres have really struggled to get offense from the rest of their lineup and rank below average in most categories.
Brewers Bats Are on Fire
For probably the deepest starting rotation in the league, Adrian Houser (RHP) is likely the Brewers' No. 4 starter and holds a 3.69 ERA. He has been very hit-or-miss in his nine starts this year. In four of his starts, he allowed zero or one run, but in three of the other starts, he allowed at least five runs.
Relying mostly on his sinker, Houser doesn’t strike out many batters but pitches to contact and avoids barrels. He does struggle with his control, walking 3.88 BB/9, and his 4.56 xERA is almost a full run higher.
Maybe they should be called Slamwaukee. Or Milwaukslam? They should come up with something because no team has more home runs than the Brewers this season. They’ve hit 70 long balls and rank fifth in runs scored. They have been red-hot at the plate, ranking fifth in wOBA during May.
A couple key bats are currently missing from the Crew’s lineup though with Willy Adames and Hunter Renfroe both currently on the injury list. Rowdy Tellez has led Milwaukee with a .398 xwOBA and 122 wRC+.
Padres-Brewers Pick
This game should be a very even matchup, which is indicated by the line being a coin flip.
Manaea has an xERA about half a run better than his actual number, while Houser's xERA is about half a run worse. However, both pitchers have proven capable to throw a gem or get shelled, depending on the occasion.
Both teams have talent in the lineup but are facing an arm they carry much worse splits against. The Brewers rank in the bottom 10 of the league in wOBA and wRC+ against left-handed pitchers, while San Diego ranks in the bottom 10 in both against right-handed pitchers.
The Brewers have been hitting the ball much better than the Padres over the last month and have had pretty consistent success against them over the recent years. Manaea ranks in the bottom 20% in average Exit Velocity allowed this year. He has a tendency to give up hard contact, and he can struggle with walks .
Just last week, Houser went six innings against the Padres, allowing only three hits and one run before the bullpen lost it in extra innings. I trust the Brewers more in what is essentially a coin flip game.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers ML -108 (BetRivers)
