Padres vs. Cardinals Odds
| Padres Odds | -130 |
| Cardinals Odds | +110 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Time | 1:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The second game of this series was a pitcher's duel highlighted by a vintage performance from Adam Wainwright. However, the market seems to think this afternoon finale will look very different.
On the bump for the San Diego Padres will be Yu Darvish. After a few clunkers to open the season, Darvish has really found his groove of late, and he's lowered his ERA to 3.76.
As for the Cards, it will be Dakota Hudson's turn to take the ball. Hudson has been defying all of the predictive analytics — as he comes in with a 3.22 ERA — but every underlying metric points to the pitcher being due for some serious regression.
So, will the regression monster finally swallow him up? Let's take a closer look to find out.
Padres Bound to Get to Hudson
Baseball is a game of numbers and fortunately, we have taken statistics to a whole different level in this day and age — so much to the point that we can nearly see players' performances on a day-to-day basis.
Well, Hudson is defying all of that game-changing, sabermetric work, as he continues to be successful despite performing poorly in every expected statistic.
Hudson's MLB percentile rankings look like a pack of cold-activated Coors Light. He ranks in the bottom 15 percent of qualified pitchers in the following statistics: Average Exit Velocity, Hard Hit Rate, xBA, xwOBA, xSLG, strikeout rate, whiff rate, walk rate and chase rate.
However, he'll enter this start with a 3-2 record and 3.22 ERA through nine starts.
San Diego has the guys to get to Hudson. The Padres' lineup has been propelled by leading NL MVP candidate Manny Machado, but Eric Hosmer has also put together a solid season.
Although those two have provided a chunk of the offense, when they get it started, the others tend to follow. With the number of mistakes Hudson has made, Machado should get the hit parade started early.
Darvish to Continue Dominance Over Cards
Darvish has been in the NL for quite some time now, and he has seen the current Cardinals lineup on multiple occasions. He has faced the Cardinals' hitters a combined 140 times and has held them to a .229 batting average.
However, the dominance doesn't stop there.
In that same sample size, Darvish holds a 34 percent strikeout rate and has only allowed seven free passes.
But wait, there's more.
When you look at the Cardinals' quality of contact against Darvish, the numbers only get worse. They have an Average Exit Velocity of just 87.6 mph and an xwOBA of .256. That all results in a collective expected batting average of .209.
For all the history that Darvish holds over the Cards, this will be the first time that he's faced them this season, and they are much more potent than their numbers appear.
St. Louis has the best run differential in the NL Central, and that is due to the production from the red-hot Paul Goldschmidt and his partner in crime across the diamond, Nolan Arenado.
Although his competition may be stiff, Darvish is on the verge of turning his season around. He's coming into this start off of a dominant outing against the Milwaukee Brewers, and that came after he threw seven shutout innings against the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Cards have potential, but Darvish still has the stuff to contain them.
Padres-Cardinals Pick
The discrepancy in the pitching matchup is drastic, and the underlying numbers make it very apparent. Bettors in the overnight market are very aware of how these two starters are trending, as the Cardinals opened as -115 favorites but have since flipped and are now underdogs.
I am in line with the market move and will gladly back the better pitcher and see if Hudson finally gets what's coming to him.
Back the Padres to salvage the series.
Pick: Padres -125
