The Arizona Diamondbacks will roll out right-hander Merrill Kelly against the San Diego Padres on Friday night at Chase Field. Opening pitch is set for 9:40 p.m. ET on MLB.TV.
Let's take a look at the latest betting odds and get to my Padres vs Diamondbacks MLB parlay picks for tonight's matchup.
Tony Sartori's Padres vs Diamondbacks MLB Parlay Picks for Friday
- Over 9 (-105)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Hits (-295)
- Padres ML (+110)
Parlay Odds: +370 (DraftKings)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Over 9 (-105)
Kelly should be a good fade candidate in this matchup. Through 12 starts this season, he possesses a 3.71 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.
Those certainly aren't terrible numbers, but his underlying metrics suggest that regression is looming. Kelly sports a 5.10 xERA and ranks in the 17th percentile or lower in xBA, average exit velocity and barrel rate.
This expected regression is likely to come to fruition against the Padres, a team he owns a 5.71 ERA against over his past three outings against them.
Even if Kelly secures another solid outing, I don't trust the bullpen that follows him. This season, Arizona's relief pitching ranks in the bottom half of the league in ERA, FIP and xFIP.
San Diego should jump all over this pitching staff, considering that it ranks in the top-eight of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG and OPS.
The good news for Arizona is that it also ranks in the top-eight of the league in each of those categories.
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Hits (-295)
Continuing this fade of Kelly, I want to back a member of San Diego's powerhouse lineup. Enter Fernando Tatis Jr.
Through 25 career plate appearances against Kelly, Tatis Jr. boasts a .364 BA, .955 SLG and .553 wOBA. Those are astonishing numbers, and that success is likely to continue on Friday when you also consider his recent form.
Tatis Jr. has recorded at least one hit in 13 of his past 14 games.
Padres ML (+110)
If we are backing Tatis Jr. and the rest of the Padres to tee off against Kelly, then a highly correlated outcome would be for San Diego to also win the game.
I would argue that the Diamondbacks' lone advantage in this matchup would be their home field. With that said, the Padres' road win percentage is higher than Arizona's home win percentage.
Furthermore, the clear bullpen advantage goes to San Diego. Entering this matchup, the Padres' relief staff paces Arizona's in ERA, FIP and xFIP.
