Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds
| Padres Odds | -155 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | +135 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Time | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Major League Baseball's Opening Day starts in the afternoon, but after a long winter that included the commissioner instituting a lockout, surely no die-hard fans will be able to sleep Thursday night until the West Coast games are over.
That brings us to the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres, who will face off with former World Series MVP Madison Bumgarner and five-time All-Star Yu Darvish on the mound.
The Padres seemed destined to get back to the playoffs last year after a 53-40 record at the All-Star break, but they cratered in the second half, going 26-43 and missing out entirely.
San Diego followed that up with a quiet offseason — at least until the recent trade for Sean Manaea. The club also added pitcher Nick Martinez and designated hitter Luke Voit while losing infielder Adam Frazier, outfielder Tommy Pham and closer Mark Melancon.
The Diamondbacks did even less than the Padres this offseason. They merely signed Melancon away from the Padres without making any other significant additions. Arizona went 52-110 last season and did nothing to convince anyone that they can avoid 100 losses this year.
Let's see where we can find betting value in the latest-starting game on Opening Day.
Padres Are Deep — Even Without Tatis
While the Padres' front office had a relatively quiet offseason, star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. didn't, as he was in multiple motorcycle accidents and suffered a broken wrist which will keep him out for the first half of the season.
Even without Tatis, San Diego should have enough offensive firepower to handle Bumgarner on Opening Day. The Padres' lineup still posses quite a few hitters who pound the ball against left-handers like Bumgarner.
Voit and Will Myers each posted isolated-slugging numbers above .200 against left-handed pitching last season and Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth and Eric Hosmer each have at least one home run against Bumgarner in their careers.
Darvish will look to bounce back this year from a rough second half in 2021. Darvish made the All-Star team after a good first half, but then completely fell apart in the second half with a 6.16 ERA in 12 starts. This from the same pitcher who finished second in the National League Cy Young award voting in 2020.
While his half-season split was terrible last year, he consistently performed better at home. Darvish had a 3.38 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 17 starts at home last year compared to 5.54 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 13 starts on the road.
We can expect Darvish to get back on track and start the year strong at home against the lowly Diamondbacks.
Diamondbacks' Bumgarner Faces Uphill Battle
Without Tatis, the biggest star in this game might be Arizona's Ketel Marte, who has battled injury problems himself. Marte played just 90 games last year due to injury and even dealt with an eye issue in spring training.
He should be available for this contest, but even so the Diamondbacks just don't have enough hitting to really scare opposing pitchers. Daulton Varsho is the only player in the lineup who posted an isolated-slugging number above .200 last year (min 250 plate appearances).
Worse than their lack of offense, though, is that Bumgarner will face a mostly right-handed Padres lineup in this one. The only lefties who project to be in the Padres lineup are Trent Grisham and Hosmer.
Last season, Bumgarner was significantly worse in nearly every statistical category against right-handed hitters (.338 wOBA, .228 ISO, 89.7 average exit velocity, 17.2% K%, 6.5% BB%, 32.2% GB%, 44.7% FB%, and 42.8% hard contact percentage).
The righties in San Diego's lineup should be licking their chops.
Padres-Diamondbacks Pick
For one of the last games on Opening Day, we have two veteran starting pitchers on the mound. One trying to shake off an awful second half of his last season and the other trying to shake off a bad second act of his career.
I'm not feeling the comeback story for Bumgarner here, even with the Padres down Tatis.
While I like the Padres and think they take advantage of this matchup against Bumgarner, I don't want to put too much faith in the Friars. There are still questions about how deep Darvish will pitch in this game given that he's 35-years-old and it's his first start of the season.
Part of the Padres' struggles last year was their bullpen, where they lost Melancon for this season, and they had a 21-26 record in one-run games.
To avoid dealing with any potential headaches late in the game and at almost the same price as the full-nine moneyline, take the Padres to win the first five innings, where they will have their biggest advantage against the Diamondbacks.
Pick: Padres F5 -160 (DraftKings)
