Padres vs. Dodgers Odds
| Padres Odds | +116 |
| Dodgers Odds | -136 |
| Over/Under | 9 |
| Time | 7:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
In a battle between NL West brutes, the Los Angeles Dodgers look to close out a three-game sweep over the San Diego Padres on Sunday Night Baseball.
The Dodgers send out left-hander Tyler Anderson to the mound, while the Padres combat them with Yu Darvish. The last time these clubs squared off it was Anderson that dominated in a 7-2 Dodgers victory.
When it comes to same-game parlays, it's critical the plays all follow the same narrative of how I expect the game to go. I normally go with an all-in mentality, trying to boost the odds as much I can.
That said, here is the same-game parlay for Padres vs. Dodgers in what I think ends up being a San Diego victory.
The Parlay (odds): +1035
- Padres ML (+116)
- Brandon Drury — Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125)
- Yu Darvish — 6+ Strikeouts (-186)
- Josh Bell to Record an RBI (+125)
Same-Game Parlay — Padres vs. Dodgers
Padres ML (+116)
I think the Padres are undervalued and should be slight favorites despite being on the road.
After a dominant July where he had a 1.11 ERA across five starts, Anderson was tagged for five runs over five innings against the struggling San Francisco Giants.
While he limits hard contact at an elite level, the southpaw doesn't generate many swings and misses and relies on pitching to contact. He is a pitcher I'm looking to fade over the next couple of weeks, especially as a Dodger, who are often overvalued and a public darling in the betting market.
Anderson's xFIP (4.05) is over a run higher than his actual ERA (2.89) and both his BABIP (.264) and home run rate (0.78 per 9) are both significantly down from his career averages.
I don't buy Anderson is a completely changed pitcher, which feeds into my bet on the Padres moneyline.
Darvish has continued to be a reliable arm for San Diego, with his expected indicators sitting right around his actual ERA. He does have his occasional struggles with barrel rate, but is above-average in nearly every other metric.
As a team, Los Angeles is slashing .130/.258/.277 in 115 at-bats against Darvish.
This is just the perfect bounce-back opportunity for San Diego behind one of its best arms. You'll rarely get Darvish at plus money, so I'm hopping in on the Padres.
Brandon Drury — Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125)
One of the pickups for San Diego at the trade deadline, Drury is a lefty killer. The 29-year-old is having a revival season in 2022 and I expect his success to continue against Anderson.
Against left-handed pitching, Drury is hitting .301. Here's the kicker: his slugging is .650!
Across 31 hits against lefties in 2022, Drury has 18 extra-base hits. He's also quite familiar with Anderson, having six hits across 17 at-bats with three doubles and a home run.
Following the narrative that the Padres are going to win on Sunday Night Baseball, backing Drury to get o1.5 bases is the next piece of the puzzle.
His numbers against southpaws are too staggering to fade.
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Yu Darvish — Six+ Strikeouts (-186)
I touched on Darvish a little bit earlier in this article, but he's had his success against the Dodgers lineup — especially in the strikeout department.
In those 115 aforementioned at-bats, the Dodgers have struck out a total of 41 times against Darvish. Take away Anderson's and Julio Urias' couple of strikeouts, and Darvish still has a 34.8 strikeout rate.
Over the last 10 starts, Darvish has hit this number all but once. His last time out against the Dodgers, despite being tagged for five runs, he struck out 10.
If San Diego is going to win here, it'll be on the back of Darvish.
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Josh Bell to Record an RBI (+125)
This is what takes the parlay up a notch. Another player acquired at the deadline, Josh Bell now anchors the middle of the Padres lineup.
The 29-year-old is having an incredible season thus far, hitting .300 with 58 RBI. He's cut down on his strikeout rate — it's now just 14.1 percent, his lowest since 2016 — and will have plenty of RBI opportunities hitting behind the likes of Manny Machado and Juan Soto.
While the switch-hitting bell is slightly better against righties, he still hits .287 with a .490 slugging against southpaws. He's only faced Anderson three times, but does have a hit against him.
The final leg to the parlay comes down to Bell cashing in with runners in scoring position on Sunday night. He should have plenty of chances in what I think will be a higher-scoring Padres win.
Plus, he can cash this with a home run, too. Ship it!
