NLDS Game 3 between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres was wild, as both teams combined for 11 runs in the first 3 innings. However, the scoring completely stalled after that and the Padres hung on to win 6-5.
Despite the three-headed monster of Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, the Dodgers find themselves with their backs against the wall in an elimination Game 4. The Padres are arguably the hottest team in baseball since August and will hand the ball to Dylan Cease with an opportunity to send the Dodgers home early in the postseason once again.
The Dodgers have yet to announce a Game 4 starter, but I assume it will be an "all hands on deck" approach.
For Game 4, I compiled a 3-leg SGP that pays out roughly 6-1 on your original investment. Here are the three legs:
Padres vs Dodgers MLB Parlay Picks for Game 4
- Dylan Cease Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+104)
- Fernando Tatis Over 1.5 Total Bases (-130)
- Alternate Game Total Under 8.5 (-144)
Parlay Odds: +615 (DraftKings)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Padres vs Dodgers Parlay Leg 1: Back Cease in Game 4
Dylan Cease Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+104)
Padres vs Dodgers, 9:08 p.m. ET
Cease has been touched up a bit by the Dodgers over his past two starts, but should bounce back strong tonight.
First, the Dodgers offense has struck out 35% of the time against Cease over their careers. That is 5% higher than Cease's strikeout rate on the season (30%).
He had above a 30% whiff, chase and strikeout rates during the regular season and the Dodgers, as a team, struck out a tad over eight times per game. Cease can get the job done tonight and send the Dodgers home packing.
Padres vs Dodgers Parlay Leg 2: Tatis to Stay Hot
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
Padres vs Dodgers, 9:08 p.m. ET
What else is there to say about Tatis? He's been blistering hot at the plate and crushed a mammoth homer last night. He's up to three homers in the postseason and I have a great feeling that he’ll continue his hot hitting tonight.
The Padres have a chance to clinch tonight, and if they do, it will be the result of a big night from Tatis. There needs to be clarity as to who is pitching for the Dodgers, but Tatis will have his chances to clear this prop with at least four at-bats.
Tatis is the only hitter juiced to clear his total bases prop in tonight's game, so the market has adjusted to his hot streak. Still, l’ll keep riding the hot streak with Tatis until he flames out.
Padres vs Dodgers Parlay Leg 3: Trust the Pitching in Game 4
Alternate Game Total Under 8.5 (-144)
Padres vs Dodgers, 9:08 p.m. ET
Despite thinking Tatis will put up a big performance, I’m taking a shot with an alternate under. Last night, we saw a wild offensive outburst in the early innings, but the bats were silenced late.
I also like Cease’s chances to shut the door and bounce back from a rough Game 1. It should also be noted that regardless of who the Dodgers start tonight, they’ll throw the kitchen sink at the Padres to try and stay alive.
The Dodgers had one of the strongest bullpens in baseball during the regular season, even if it consisted of starting pitchers throwing a couple of innings each. It will be on a batter-by-batter basis, so once the three-batter limit requirements are met, there is nothing that should come off as surprising from Dave Roberts.
