The Los Angeles Dodgers roll out right-hander Walker Buehler for Game 3 of this NL Division Series, while the San Diego Padres will counter with right-hander Michael King on Tuesday evening at Petco Park.
I'll be targeting both starting pitchers plus a moneyline for my Padres vs Dodgers parlay for Game 3.
Padres vs Dodgers Parlay Picks (Game 3)
- Walker Buehler Under 2.5 Strikeouts (+136)
- Michael King Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)
- Padres ML (-152)
Parlay Odds: +495 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Padres vs Dodgers Parlay Leg 1: Fade Walker Buehler
Walker Buehler Under 2.5 Strikeouts (+136)
Buehler has never returned to form following Tommy John surgery in 2023, and I am not quite sure we will ever see that pitcher again. Through 16 starts this season, the right-hander went 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA and 1.55 WHIP.
His underlying metrics were equally poor, as Buehler ranks in the bottom fifth of the league in both xERA and xBA. Specifically, we are going to fade Los Angeles' starting pitcher in the prop market, considering that he ranks in the 16th percentile or lower in chase, whiff, and strikeout rates.
Currently, you can find his strikeout prop at 2.5. While that is a low total, Buehler's final regular season start came against San Diego, a game in which he collected just one punchout through five innings of work.
In fact, Buehler has recorded two or fewer strikeouts in each of his two starts against the Padres since returning from injury.
Padres vs Dodgers Parlay Leg 2: Trends Favor King's Strikeout Prop
Michael King Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Meanwhile, King was one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. Through 31 appearances on the mound, the right-hander posted a 13-9 record with a 2.95 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.
Analytically speaking, regression is unlikely as King ranks in the top third of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. Once again, I am going to dive into the prop market as King also ranks in the top third of the league in chase, whiff, and strikeout rates.
His strikeout prop is listed at 5.5, a total he has surpassed in 11 of his past 13 starts. He is 7-4 over that stretch with a 1.90 ERA. This success is likely to continue against Los Angeles, a team that possesses a 28.7% strikeout rate and 30.4% whiff rate through 108 combined career plate appearances against King.
Padres vs Dodgers Parlay Leg 3: Padres Moneyline
Padres ML (-152)
If we are fading Buehler while simultaneously backing King, then a highly correlated outcome would be for the Padres to also win this game. The starting pitching edge isn't the only advantage for San Diego in this matchup, either.
This season, the Padres' bullpen outranks the Dodgers' in both FIP and xFIP. Obviously, San Diego also boasts home-field advantage.
That just leaves the hitting, which is a wash. Both teams rank in the top 10 in pretty much every batting category across the board.
All else equal, I'm taking King over Buehler every day of the week.
