Padres vs. Dodgers NLDS Odds
| Padres Series Price | +180 |
| Dodgers Series Price | -215 |
Series Schedule
- Game 1: Tuesday, Oct. 11, 9:37 p.m. ET, FS1
- Game 2: Wednesday, Oct. 12, 8:37 p.m. ET, FS1
- Game 3: Friday, Oct. 14
- Game 4: Saturday, Oct. 15 (if necessary)
- Game 5: Sunday, Oct. 16 (if necessary)
San Diego Padres
- World Series Odds: +3000
- Pennant Odds: +1300
- Regular Season Record: 89-73
- Pythagorean Record: 86-76
- Team wRC+ (Rank): 102 (13th)
- Starting Pitching xFIP (Rank): 3.87 (13th)
- Bullpen xFIP (Rank): 3.84 (12th)
Odds via FanDuel
Pythagorean record via Baseball Reference
Stat rankings via FanGraphs
How They Got Here
It’s been a strange ride for this version of the Padres. It’s been a mix of elation and devastation for the fanbase essentially since Manny Machado signed.
San Diego put together a solid collection of talent and fought its way to the NLDS in 2020. The Padres then doubled down, putting together a monstrous roster in 2021 only to implode in the second half and miss the postseason altogether.
In 2022, the Padres…
- Got a MVP-worthy season for Machado.
- Got nothing from Fernando Tatis Jr. due to an injury and then a drug-related suspension.
- Got a career year from replacement shortstop Ha-Seong Kim, who finished second on the team in bWAR (4.9).
- Got Cy Young-contending seasons from Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish.
- Got a disastrous first half of the season from Blake Snell (5.22 ERA) followed by a dominant second half (2.19 ERA).
- Made the splashiest deadline moves of the century, including dealing for Juan Soto, Josh Bell and Josh Hader.
- Won nine of their final 16 games when the NL wild-card opponents were weak.
- Finished 5-14 (.263) against the Dodgers, but 82-58 against everyone else (.585).
- Made the postseason in a full 162-game season for the first time since 2006, despite finishing 23 games back in their own division.
Talking about how the Padres got here is like discussing Gone Girl at a book club — there are so many twists and turns. Plus, the story isn’t even over yet.
The Padres beat the Mets in Game 3 of their NL Wild Card Round, taking the series as underdogs to advance to the NLDS, where they'll meet the division-rival Dodgers.
Offense
The Padres bats begin with Machado, who led the NL in fWAR (7.2) and only Paul Goldschmidt had a higher wRC+ (151). He posted a career-high wOBA and sweet spot rate while posting a 50% hard hit rate.
Manny Machado should be NL MVP.
Same fWAR as Paul Goldschmidt (7.0). Second most valuable hitter on the Padres has been Jake Cronenworth (3.7).
Second most valuable hitter on the Cardinals has been… Paul Goldschmidt (behind Arenado at 7.1).
Padres are nowhere without Manny.
— Jay Croucher (@croucherJD) September 25, 2022
Excluding Soto (more on him in a second), nobody really hit the ball hard. Jorge Alfaro managed a solid barrel rate, but didn’t slug well. Jake Cronenworth’s batted ball stats took a massive hit as he finished below the 20th percentile in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
The whole offense finished bottom-10 in SLG (.382), ISO (.141) and home runs (151).
Brandon Drury and Bell should help the power deficiency. Soto can slam the ball, but he adds more to the Padres' greatest strength: plate discipline.
The Padres rarely chase. They had the second-lowest swinging strike rate in MLB (10%) and the fifth-highest contact rate (78.1%). They finished with the sixth highest walk rate (9.3%) and the eighth-lowest strikeout rate (21.3%).
Put it all together and the Padres had a slightly-above-average offense this season (102 wRC+). But the deadline additions have the potential to add much-needed power to this disciplined offense and turn San Diego’s lineup deadly.
Rotation
San Diego’s pitching staff kept the Padres afloat during this rollercoaster of a season. The rotation finished sixth in the NL in fWAR, with Musgrove and Darvish carrying the team as the duo posted a combined 3.06 ERA over 369 2/3 innings.
The best story of the year is Snell.
Blake Snell before and after July 1st
Before: 36 IP, 5.60 ERA, 4.32 xFIP, 2.00 K/BB
After: 49 IP, 2.42 ERA, 2.60 xFIP, 3.90 K/BB
— David📈 (@DavidCBets) August 24, 2022
Snell started throwing his slider more as the season went on and it led to massive improvements in his fastball (.418 xwOBA allowed in June, .248 xwOBA allowed in September) and a big increase in strikeouts (20.8 K% in June, 35.1 K% in September).
The question marks will come with Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger.
You must hope Manaea’s 5.15 ERA has been fueled by his low 67.1% strand rate and he’ll regress toward his 4.14 xERA and 4.01 xFIP as the postseason progresses. But he posted the lowest ground-ball rate (38.1%) and the highest walk rate (7.5%) of his career.
It feels like Clevinger is still working his way back from injury. His velocity is down about two ticks and his strikeouts are at a career low. The stats aren’t pretty, with an xERA and xFIP both north of 4.65.
Bullpen
The Padres, surprisingly, finished fifth in MLB in reliever fWAR this season. But they dealt their closer Taylor Rogers – who converted 28 of 35 save opportunities in San Diego with a 1.3 fWAR – to Milwaukee for Hader.
Hader turned around and became a complete dud with the Padres. He has a 7.63 ERA in 15 1/3 innings with the Padres.
Luis Garcia has been the best player in the bullpen. He largely received the eighth inning and put together a 3.15 ERA while forcing a 53.7% ground-ball rate in 60 innings.
The good news is both Garcia and Hader are due for regression. Garcia has an xERA of 2.68. Hader has an xFIP of 2.89. If the tides start to turn, this could be one of the better back-end bullpens in the National League.
There’s plenty of depth too, with Steven Wilson, Tim Hill, and Robert Suarez all posting ERAs under 3.00. Nick Martinez and Craig Stammen will be effective as well. –Tanner McGrath
Los Angeles Dodgers
- World Series Odds:
- Pennant Odds:
- Regular Season Record: 111-51
- Pythagorean Record: 116-46
- Team wRC+ (Rank): 119 (1st)
- Starting Pitching xFIP (Rank): 3.76 (10th)
- Bullpen xFIP (Rank): 3.53 (4th)
How They Got Here
The National League West continues to run through Los Angeles as the Dodgers won the division for the ninth time in 10 seasons. The Dodgers have also won over 100 games in three of those seasons, the lone exception being the truncated 2020 campaign.
The Dodgers finished the season with the best record in the league and are looking to make another deep October run.
Offense
The Dodgers weren’t exactly in need of offensive help, but adding Freddie Freeman to an already potent lineup certainly didn’t hurt.
The Dodgers can trot out a trio of former MVPs in their everyday lineup, so perhaps it should come as no surprise that they scored over five runs per game. Mookie Betts, who set a career-high in homers this season, sets the tone at the top of this lineup, but the Dodgers are loaded 1-through-9 and can beat opposing teams in a myriad of ways.
Rotation
The loss of Walker Buehler (Tommy John) would have been a devastating blow for most contenders, but the Dodgers aren’t built like most teams.
Sure, they’d rather have Buehler than go without him, but there’s still plenty of talent on this pitching staff as Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin and Clayton Kershaw anchor a formidable rotation.
Kershaw, while not as dominant as he once was, put together another All-Star campaign and finished with an sub-2.5 ERA. Gonsolin and Urias also put together strong seasons and could give the Dodgers one of the better rotations in October.
Bullpen
If there’s a weakness on this team, it comes in the late innings. Craig Kimbrel was brought in to be the closer, but has struggled throughout the season and has been removed from the role.
The Dodgers’ relievers led the National League with a sub-3 ERA, so it’s not as if this unit is devoid of talent. However, entering the postseason without a definitive guy to hand the ball off to in the ninth is a scary proposition. –Will Boor
