Padres vs. Dodgers Odds
| Padres Odds | +135 |
| Dodgers Odds | -155 |
| Over/Under | 9 (-105 / -115) |
| Time | 9:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
After getting taken out in a lopsided 8-1 loss on Friday night, the Padres will get another crack at rival Los Angeles on Saturday. With Andrew Heaney on the hill for the Dodgers, this game will truly be an interesting and perhaps unpredictable one. That doesn't mean we can't find an edge. Let's get into how to bet it.
San Diego Padres
After an offensive explosion in their first game with Juan Soto, Josh Bell and Brandon Drury, the Padres have come back down to Earth with two consecutive losses and have scored just four runs in those games. Friday was a particularly disheartening performance with just four hits to show for. While the moves will theoretically bring some much-needed power to this team, fans may need to be patient and wait for it to develop.
In the meantime, San Diego will have Mike Clevinger on the hill on Saturday. The right-hander has been solid with a 3.13 ERA through 12 starts, though his .351 xwOBA on contact and a .240 expected batting average would imply he's only a marginally above-average pitcher. A 3.49 xERA is doing nothing to help his case, either.
Still, it's hard to say that Clevinger is a liability or a bad pitcher. He's introduced a sinker this year, and while it's been hit to a .292 average, his .237 xBA with the pitch and 21.4% whiff rate indicate that it's on the way to being an effective pitch. With that pitch, as well as Clevinger's four-seamer and cutter, L.A. can expect to see a heavy dose of fastballs.
Los Angeles Dodgers
That's great news for the Dodgers, who rank second in baseball in weighted runs per 100 fastballs this season, according to FanGraphs. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Chris Taylor all have solid numbers against four-seamers, and Freeman and Betts rank inside the league's top eight in run value against cutters. They, along with Taylor, are also among the best in baseball against sinkers.
L.A. has been operating normally over the past couple of weeks, posting a 128 wRC+ with a 20% strikeout rate and solid .189 Isolated Power. It is seventh in the league with a 41.2% hard-hit rate and fourth in barrel rate.
Now let's get to the mystery man, Andrew Heaney. The lefty has a career ERA close to five runs, but this season he's allowed just one run through 23 1/3 innings with a whopping 34 strikeouts. He's mowed down the Twins, Reds, Guardians, Nationals and Giants, which isn't exactly the most imposing list of teams. San Diego could be a tougher test.
The sample size is small here, so Heaney's 2.72 xERA is largely meaningless. It does mean he probably should have yielded more than just the one run in his five outings, which would be backed up by his 9.3% walk rate and 41.2% hard-hit rate.
Padres-Dodgers Pick
This is yet another great matchup for the Dodgers against a player who throws a variety of fastballs. While I think their offense hums right along on Saturday, I'm not so sure Heaney will back that up with a solid performance.
Heaney may have been able to halt a Giants team that was without many of its best players last time out, but this Padres offense should pack a much heavier punch. I expect them to come roaring back on Saturday and get us to another over.
Pick: Over 9 (-105)
