Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Prediction Wednesday | MLB Odds & Pick
Via Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images. Pictured: Clayton Kershaw #22 of the Los Angeles Dodgers delivers to the plate against the San Francisco Giants at Dodger Stadium on July 25, 2024 in Los Angeles, California.
- The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres conclude their highly anticipated NL West series Wednesday night at Petco Park, with first pitch scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET on MLB.TV.
- Dodgers vs Padres odds (via FanDuel) for Wednesday have the Padres as -136 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 7 (-106o /-114u).
- Find MLB analyst Kenny Ducey's Dodgers vs Padres preview below, which includes breakdowns of starters Clayton Kershaw and Dylan Cease, plus a moneyline prediction
Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+116 | 7 -106o / -114u | +1.5 -194 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-136 | 7 -106o / -114u | -1.5 +160 |
A day after doing battle at this year's MLB Trade Deadline, the Padres and Dodgers will take the field against one another in Petco Park, where the two teams will deploy reinforcements in an attempt to lock up the National League West.
Wednesday features Clayton Kershaw making his second start of the season opposite Dylan Cease, who's fresh off a no-hitter against the Nationals and has yet to allow a run since July 7th. Can the Dodgers' patient approach make life difficult on Cease, or might the Padres complete the mini two-game sweep.
Let's break down the best way to bet on Dodgers vs Padres below.
San Diego Padres
It's been quite the run for Cease, who's now put together three straight scoreless outings against the Braves, Guardians and Nationals. The righty has struck out nine or more in each of these showings, totaling 30 punch-outs across all 22 innings, as the right-hander continues his feast-or-famine strikeout approach.
The Dodgers have been one of the better teams in the league at limiting third strikes, doing so at a low 21.8% clip, but they've struck out in a whopping 28.2% of their plate appearances over the past two weeks to give this matchup a rather uncomfortable feel.
However, the big detractor for Cease is his vulnerability to the home run. He allowed two dingers in each of his first two starts this month prior to his insane run and continues to pitch at an enormous 34.4% Fly Ball Rate, which is almost 11 points higher than average and considerably higher than anything we've seen from him this year.
The Padres went out and added to their bullpen prior to the deadline, bringing in Jason Adam and Tanner Scott to work the late innings, but they've done nothing to add on offense. That's likely not a large deal given they've hit .287 over the past two weeks and own a 127 wRC+ as they continue to exhibit expert contact hitting with just an 18.8% Strikeout Rate.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers' offense remains good, but not great, at the moment. Unlike the Padres, they did go out and add some bats like Amed Rosario, Tommy Edman and Kevin Kiermaier in addition to shoring up their rotation with Jack Flaherty.
I'm not expecting to see Rosario as the Dodgers will continue what the Tampa Bay Rays started by bizarrely deploying him as a platoon, but there's a chance we see two guys who can hit righties here in Kiermaier and Edman.
There's not a ton to improve on for Los Angeles, which owns a beefy .201 Isolated Power (ISO) over the past two weeks to move them into ninth in wRC+, other than the strikeouts.
The task could not be any taller against perhaps the greatest strikeout artist in baseball in Cease, but other than Kiermaier, the additions should help this team put the ball in play more and create disruption in an offense that can take walks better than almost every team in the league.
Kershaw will take the hill for the Dodgers as he has worked just four innings his season debut but appeared to be fine, allowing two runs on six hits and two walks with six strikeouts.
The punch-outs likely won't be there in bunches against a much more disciplined team than the Giants side he previously faced, but the positive news here is that San Diego has posted a .695 OPS against lefties this year, which is almost 60 points lower than the reverse split and ranked 22nd in the big leagues.
Padres vs. Dodgers
Betting Pick & Prediction
It would appear the glaring strikeout issues that have plagued the Dodgers should be present against Cease, whose 32.5% Strikeout Rate is one of the very best in baseball.
However, if batters can hit the ball in the air and hit for power, there are ways to get to the righty. While his strikeout totals have been impressive over the past three outings, he also has issued seven walks in 22 frames.
The Dodgers can walk like nobody's business and continue to hit for considerable power, so even at yet another pitcher-friendly park for Cease, I do believe the Dodgers can land a couple of big blows here to ultimately take the game.
I expect this one to be low scoring as Cease works out of trouble with punch-outs and Kershaw pitches brilliantly to contact against a Padres team which has struggled versus lefties.
It's hard to say the Padres will win this one with a barrage of hits, and I like the chances of the Dodgers knocking a couple of timely homers to take this one.
Pick: Dodgers ML (+115 at Ceasars)
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